4 in 5 describe the state of the British economy as “poor” – with 2 in 5 expecting it to get worse in 2024

A new Ipsos poll reveals that 61% think the UK is currently experiencing an economic recession
  • 4 in 5 (78%) describe the state of the British economy as poor, down 10ppts from the high in February 
  • 2 in 5 (38%) expect the economy to get worse in 2024, while 1 in 3 (33%) expect it to stay the same and 1 in 4 (23%) expect it to get better 
  • Half (49%) expect their taxes to increase throughout the remainder of this year, with 3 in 10 (30%) expecting their standard of living to decrease

New Ipsos polling conducted ahead of the interest rate increase announced this morning shows that a majority (78%) would describe the state of the British economy as poor. This is a decrease of 10ppts from the 88% of the public who said the same in February of this year. Only 20% describe it as good, compared with 10% in February. 

2 in 5 (38%) expect the economy to get worse in 2024, while 1 in 3 (33%) expect it to stay the same and 1 in 4 (23%) expect it to get better. 2019 GE Conservative voters are more optimistic, with 27% expecting it to get worse and slightly more, 33%, expecting it to get better. By contrast, half (49%) of 2019 GE Labour voters expect it to get worse, and only 1 in 5 (18%) expect it to get better.

61% feel the UK is currently experiencing an economic recession, although this is down 12 ppts from July 2022. Looking ahead, an equal share (61%) say it’s likely the UK will experience an economic recession in 2024. 

Most expect their household spending to increase within the next six months, with the largest share of the public expecting the cost of their food shopping to rise (75%), alongside the cost of their other household shopping (72%), the cost of their utilities (66%), and the overall cost of going out socialising (62%). These outlooks are not as pessimistic as they were in May, with slightly fewer Britons expecting increases than did in May. Similar proportions expect their household spend to increase in 2024. 

Britons expect their household spending to increase over the next six months compared to what it is at present – though fewer say this than did in May

Continuing to look ahead to the remainder of 2023, 2 in 3 expect interest rates (68%) and the rate of inflation (64%) to rise and half (49%) expect the taxes they pay to increase (and 56% expect further tax rises in 2024), 

Against this backdrop, we find 26% expecting to see their own standard of living rise between now and the end of the year – with 30% expecting their standard of living to get worse. 

Two-thirds of Britons expect interest rates and the rate of inflation to rise in the next 6 months, whilst only a quarter expect their own standard of living to rise

Technical note:

Ipsos interviewed a representative quota sample of 1,065 adults aged 18-75 in Great Britain. Interviews took place on the online Omnibus between 16th-17th June 2023. Data has been weighted to the known offline population proportions. All polls are subject to a wide range of potential sources of errors.

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