Andy Burnham more popular in Manchester than Sadiq Khan in London or Andy Street in West Midlands

• 6 in 10 in Greater Manchester feel favourable towards Andy Burnham, while almost half think he has changed the area for the better.  
• Londoners’ views towards Sadiq Khan are more divided, though he is seen as the most capable Mayor over his Conservative challenger.
• More feel favourable than unfavourable towards Andy Street in the West Midlands, but there are high levels of don’t knows.
• Most important issues for people’s vote in local elections are the NHS, the state of the roads, cost of living, and crime and policing.

New polling from Ipsos, with fieldwork conducted towards the start of the local election campaign 4th-10th April 2024, explores public attitudes to the Mayors of Greater Manchester, West Midlands and London, views on their performance in office, opinions of the other candidates, and attitudes towards the most important issues to people’s vote in the upcoming local elections.  

Fieldwork was carried out using Ipsos’ online random probability KnowledgePanel, with a total sample of 7,046 interviews with adults in England aged 18+, with boosts to achieve 1,305 interviews in London, 702 in Greater Manchester and 650 in West Midlands.

Attitudes towards the Mayors and other candidates

• Of the three Mayors, Andy Burnham stands out as receiving the most positive ratings from his local area, with 59% in Greater Manchester feeling favourable towards him (and 15% unfavourable).  
• Views are split towards Sadiq Khan in London, with 38% favourable and 40% unfavourable. In the West Midlands, while the balance of opinion is positive towards Andy Street (34% favourable, 18% unfavourable), but around half are either neutral or don’t know.
• Attitudes towards other candidates are much less strongly held, with many either neutral or don’t know.  It is important to bear in mind that these are not equivalent to voting intentions – for example, Labour supporters may still decide to vote Labour even if they don’t know much about the Labour candidate. 
• In Greater Manchester, 5% feel favourable towards Laura Evans, the Conservative candidate, and 17% feel unfavourable (61% say they’ve not heard of her). In London, 16% feel favourable towards Susan Hall, the Conservative candidate, and 34% unfavourable (28% haven’t heard of her).   In the West Midlands, 12% feel favourable towards Richard Parker, the Labour candidate, and 10% favourable (56% haven’t heard of him).

• There is a similar pattern when asked who would make the most capable Mayor, the Labour or the Conservative candidate (again, it’s important to note this is not the same as voting intention).  In Manchester, Andy Burnham has a clear lead over Laura Evans by 56% to 8%.  In London, despite his split personal ratings, Sadiq Khan also leads Susan Hall by 42% to 21%.  In the West Midlands, the picture is less clear due to the high numbers of don’t knows.  While Andy Street leads Richard Parker as most capable Mayor by 33% to 11%, 28% say they don’t know and 21% that there would be no difference (and 50% of 2019 Labour voters also say they don’t know or that there would be no difference).

Performance of the Mayors in office

• Almost half, 48%, in Greater Manchester think Andy Burnham has changed Greater Manchester for the better, just 10% say worse (28% say he’s made no difference).  Views are more split, and on balance more negative, for Sadiq Khan, with 30% of Londoners thinking he has changed the city for the better, and 37% worse (24% say he has made no difference).  Views on Andy Street’s performance are less clear cut, with 28% thinking he has changed the West Midlands for the better, 10% worse, but 36% saying he has made no difference and another 26% saying don’t know.
• The Mayors are though generally felt to have had more of an impact on people’s local areas than their councils.  Across England as a whole, 13% think their local council has changed their area for the better, 26% worse, but 51% say they have made no difference.  
• Residents of Greater Manchester think that Andy Burnham has done the best job on improving the city’s public transport system (44%), followed by standing up for people living in the city (27%), and around 1 in 5 highlighting attracting investment and visitors to the city, and listening to the views of local people.  The areas where people think he has done the worst job (each mentioned by around 1 in 5), are on reducing crime, poverty, housing, and traffic/car use in the city.
• Londoners give most credit to Sadiq Khan for improving the city’s public transport system (25%) and protecting the city’s environment (22%), followed by having the right policies for traffic and car use in the city (18%).  There are stronger opinions about where he has done the worst job, with 44% critical on levels of crime, 37% affordable housing, and 3 in 10 mentioning his policies for traffic and car use and poverty.
• People in West Midlands think Andy Street has done the best job on attracting investment to the city (28%), followed by standing up for local people (18%) and improving the city’s public transport system (16%).  He is seen as having done the worst job on crime (26%), reducing poverty, and affordable housing (both 22%).

Most important issues in the local and Mayoral elections

• Across England as a whole, the most important issues to people’s vote in the local elections are the NHS (61%), the condition of streets, roads and pavements (56%), the cost of living (55%), and crime and policing (50%).  (People living in areas without local elections were asked to think about would be important to their vote, and those in London, Manchester and West Midlands were asked to think about both Mayoral and council elections.)

• The top 4 issues are the same in the three mayoral areas.  In Greater Manchester and West Midlands the NHS and the cost of living stand out as the top 2, while in London they are equalled by concerns about crime.  Londoners are also relatively more likely to mention housing and public transport as important issues (both mentioned by 46%, compared with 36% and 35% respectively across England as a whole). 
• Londoners were also asked what type of issues would be important to their vote.  Most important were what political parties are promising to do specifically in the city (mentioned by 61%), and their views on Sadiq Khan’s performance over the past few years (56%).  However national issues were also mentioned – 40% said party policies on national issues, 28% on the UK Government’s performance, and 23% what they think of national party leaders – and 2019 Labour voters were more likely to be motivated by national issues than Conservatives.
• There is still a perception among 42% across England that national government spends less on their area than other local areas. This is also shared in the West Midlands (43%), and even more strongly in Greater Manchester (59%), although not quite as much in London (29%).

Gideon Skinner, Head of Political Research at Ipsos, said:

The tale of three Mayors is quite different across the three areas.  Andy Burnham stands out as the most popular of the three, getting particular credit on his patch for improving Manchester’s public transport system and for being seen to stand up for and listen to the views of local people.  Londoners’ views towards Sadiq Khan are more divided, with concerns particularly around crime and housing, but he is still seen as more capable than his Conservative challenger Susan Hall.  The picture in the West Midlands is less clear.  Andy Street has some personal credit in the bank, particularly on attracting investment, but many people don’t have a strong view.  While his Labour opponent is even less well known, this includes among many Labour voters, who may still decide to vote based on their views of the party and national considerations.
More broadly, both local and national issues are likely to play a part in people’s decisions.  The NHS and cost of living are key issues nationally, while crime and the state of the roads appear to play a bigger role in these local and Mayoral elections than we might see in a general election.  And perceptions of regional inequalities also persist, despite the levelling up agenda, with many people around the country feeling their local area gets less than its fair share of national spending.

Technical note

Ipsos interviewed a representative sample of 7,046 interviews with adults aged 18+ residing in England on Ipsos’ random probability online KnowledgePanel, with fieldwork running between 4-10 April 2024. Boost samples were achieved in Greater London (1,305), Greater Manchester (702), and in the West Midlands City Region (650). Data are weighted to match the profile of the population according to region-specific targets within Greater London, Greater Manchester, West Midlands City Region, and the rest of England. Data are weighted by age, gender, region, IMD, education, ethnicity, household size, and sub-regions for inner/outer London, the metropolitan districts of Greater Manchester and the West Midlands City Region (as is Ipsos standard practice, data was not weighted by past vote). The overall sample was then weighted to ensure the boosted regions matched their proportions in England overall.  All polls are subject to a wide range of potential sources of error.