Britons less pessimistic about the health of the economy than in July

Britons are less pessimistic about the economy than they were in July, according to the latest Ipsos Political Monitor.  Last month, our first Economic Optimism Index (EOI) after the Brexit vote showed the highest level of pessimism for four years, but this has receded in August (although it is still negative on balance).  Those saying the economy will get worse over the next 12 months have fallen from 57% to 43%, while those saying it will improve increased from 23% to 28% - leaving an overall Economic Optimism Index score of -15, similar to the position at the beginning of 2016.

Conservative voters in particular have become more optimistic this month, with 42% believing the economy will improve (compared with 18% of Labour voters). Older people are also more optimistic about the economy when compared to younger individuals. One in five (18%) 18-34 year olds say the economy would improve, compared with 39% of those aged 65+. Those in Greater London and Scotland are most pessimistic with more than half saying the economy will get worse (53% and 60% respectively), while those in the Midlands and the rest of the South are least pessimistic (36% and 39% respectively saying it would get worse).  Social classes AB are also more pessimistic than those in social classes C2DE (51% vs 38%).

The Ipsos poll also reveals that one in five (21%) feel more confident about the prospects of their personal finances over the next five years in the face of Brexit compared with two in five (42%) who feel less confident. One in three (34%) believe that Brexit will make no difference to their personal finances.  Previous Ipsos research has also shown many expect no changes to their personal financial situation over the next six months, and that while half believe Brexit will be worse for the economy over the next five years, more think it will be better over the next 10-20 years.

Those who feel less confident about their personal finances tend to be from groups who voted Remain in the referendum. Three in five (61%) 18-34 year olds feel less confident about the prospects of their finances compared with just 22% of those aged 65+. Three in five (62%) from in the AB social grade also say they feel less confident compared with just 27% of C2DEs. Personal finance confidence was again low in London (58% were less confident) and Scotland (52% less confident) – both regions that voted in favour of remaining within the EU.

Gideon Skinner, Head of Political Research at Ipsos, said:

The economic arguments about Brexit before the referendum were far from won, and despite the sharp increase in pessimism immediately after the result (especially among Remain-leaning groups) we also found many expecting their personal circumstances to be unaffected in the immediate future.  Conservative voters in particular have become more optimistic this month, reflecting their positive feelings towards their new government and Prime Minister”

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Technical note:

Ipsos interviewed a representative sample of 1,017 adults aged 18+ across Great Britain. Interviews were conducted by telephone 13^th- 15^th August 2016. Data are weighted to the profile of the population.