Britons split on whether they would prefer Labour or Reform UK to win the next election

New data from Ipsos in the UK’s Political Pulse survey reveals that Britons are split on whether they would prefer the Labour party led by Keir Starmer or Reform UK led by Nigel Farage to win the next General election.

Who would Britons prefer at the next election?

• If given a choice between the Labour party led by Keir Starmer and Reform UK led by Nigel Farage, Britons are split on which party they would prefer to win the next General Election. 38% say the Labour party led by Keir Starmer, while 35% say Reform UK led by Nigel Farage.
• Younger Britons would prefer Labour to form the next government, whilst older Britons would prefer Reform UK.

• Two thirds (64%) of Britons say it is clear what Nigel Farage stands for. Conversely, half (53%) continue to say it is unclear what Keir Starmer stands for (n/c from June 2025).

Government performance

• Two in three (67%) say that the country is heading in the wrong direction, while 15% say it is heading in the right direction (12% neither, 6% don’t know), giving a net rating of -52.
• Among those who believe that the country is heading in the wrong direction, half (51%) say that both the current Labour government and previous Conservative governments are responsible. 28% say that the current Labour government is most responsible, while 15% say that the previous Conservative government is most responsible.
• Among those who believe that the country is heading in the right direction, 54% say that the current Labour government is most responsible for this. 17% say that the previous Conservative government is most responsible, while 20% believe it is a combination of the two.
• 67% say that Labour are taking the wrong decisions for the country – including 21% of those who say that they like the party.

• When asked to score the government’s performance on a scale of 0-10, the Labour government receives an average performance rating of 3.5 out of 10 (-0.1 from last month). Those aged 16-34 (5.1) and Labour voters (5.4) continue to rank the government highest, while those aged 55+ (2.3) and Reform UK voters (1.3) score it lowest.
• Three in five (63%) Britons continue to not have confidence that the UK Government is running the country properly, competently and seriously. The same proportion (63%) do not believe that the government is running the country with integrity.
• Almost three in four (73%) believe that former Deputy Prime Minister Angela Rayner made the right decision to resign.

Key issues

• Healthcare/the NHS (61%), inflation/the cost of living (56%), and immigration (53%) continue to be the issues that Britons say will be most crucial in deciding their vote for the next general election.
• Labour’s performance on these issues continues to be seen as poor: Half (52%) say that the Labour party is doing a bad job at improving the NHS, up 6 ppts from June. Two thirds (67%) of Britons say that the government is doing a bad job at reducing the cost of living, up 5 ppts from June. 63% say they are doing a bad job at managing immigration and asylum, up 4 ppts from June.
• When asked who the best party is on a range of key policy issues,
  • Labour, the Conservatives, and Reform UK are virtually tied on managing the economy (15% Labour, 16% Conservatives, 15% Reform UK)
  • Labour (14%) and Reform UK (15%) are also tied on reducing the cost of living, with the Conservatives on 12%.
  • Labour (18%) has a slight lead on improving the NHS, followed by Reform UK on 15% and the Conservatives on 10%.
  • Reform UK (31%) has a significant lead on managing immigration/asylum, followed by Labour (12%) and the Conservatives (8%).

Keiran Pedley, Director of UK Politics at Ipsos said:

These findings reflect that Labour are in a difficult spot heading into party conference season, with two in three thinking things are heading in the wrong direction and a majority of the public saying the party are doing a bad job managing key issues. However, whilst Reform UK lead on immigration, no party leads on key issues like the economy or cost of living and when given a straight choice the public narrowly prefer a Labour government to a Reform UK one. This suggests, for all Labour’s challenges, they could still potentially turn things around.

Technical note: 

• Ipsos interviewed a representative sample of 2,272 adults aged 16+ across Great Britain. Interviews were conducted online between the 5th-9th September 2025.
• Data are weighted to match the profile of the population. All polls are subject to a wide range of potential sources of error.