Cutbacks or taxes: what can we expect from the next generation of MPs?

One of my favourite things to read is something called ‘counterfactual history’. This is the study of life’s what ifs: what if Germany invaded Britain in 1940? What if there had been no American War of Independence? What if Russia had won the Cold War? Whilst often regarded as populist hogwash designed more to entertain rather than provide rigorous historical analysis, in the run up to a general election ‘what if’ conversations are rampant – it’s a political commentator’s favourite past time. What if no one party wins an outright majority (highly likely)? What if the Greens hold the balance of power in the next Parliament (highly unlikely)? What if the SNP take Scotland by storm (much more likely perhaps)?

While some say playing such games fosters an atmosphere of indecision amongst voters, playing elaborate games of ‘what if’ can help our nation’s public services plan for the next government.

Ipsos recently conducted a survey of prospective parliamentary candidates (PPCs) standing in Britain’s most marginal seats. As the next generation of politicians, playing ‘what if’ games with the results enables us to second guess the policy agenda of the next parliament, and as such plan for life after the election.

So let us first consider the possibility that the Conservatives win the largest number of seats in the upcoming election: what is it that we could expect from a future Conservative-led government?

More of the same seems to be the general answer. When asked to name the most important issue facing Britain today, four-fifths (85%) of Conservative candidates interviewed say the economy. Furthermore one-third (35%) mention the deficit. Given that three-quarters (77%) of Conservative candidates say they would prefer to reduce spending on public services (given the choice between raising taxes, reducing spending, both, or neither) to combat the deficit, further cuts to public spending under a future Conservative or Conservative-led government seem almost guaranteed.

In terms of priorities for cuts, benefits and social security look most likely to be in the firing line. Three-quarters (72%) of Conservative PPCs who say they would reduce spending say the benefits and social security system is a priority for cuts. Overseas aid, the next most popular area, receives support from only 20% of Conservative PPCs for reductions.

Given Cameron’s vocal support for the NHS it is unsurprising that over half (56%) of Conservative PPCs say this should be protected from cuts. Education and defence are also popular, with 44% and 36% of Conservative PPCs respectively saying these should be protected.

Continued cutbacks, therefore, seem almost guaranteed if the Conservatives win in May. What, then, would be different if the Labour party hold the greatest number of seats?

Like the Tories, the economy and the NHS are a priority: a third (62%) of Labour PPCs interviewed mention these as important issues facing Britain today. However unlike the Conservatives, Labour PPCs also see inequality and housing as key issues, with 24% and 21% mentioning these issues respectively (no Conservative PPCs mention these issues). Interestingly, no Labour PPCs mention the deficit as a significant issue.

On the debt issue, a third (38%) of Labour PPCs say they would prefer to increase taxes given a choice between reduced spending, increased taxes, both, or neither. Furthermore almost half (48%) say cuts to funding have been significant issues for Britain’s public services in recent years and two-fifths (41%) mention a lack of investment, compared to just 23% and 8% of Conservative PPCs who say the same.

All this implies a greater willingness to spend money, or at least a reluctance to continue cutting, amongst Labour’s next generation of politicians.

Were they to introduce cuts, Labour PPCs put defence in the firing line: 40% say they would cut spending here.

The NHS is a must for protection, with all Labour candidates interviewed saying they would safeguard it.

While the possibility of a Liberal Democrat majority government is highly unlikely, there is still a real possibility that they will have a decisive influence over entry to number 10 after the election next Thursday. Looking at the issues their candidates say are the most important can give us a flavour of where they might draw lines in the sand when it comes to negotiating a coalition deal after the election.

Like Conservative and Labour candidates, Liberal Democrat PPCs rate the economy and the NHS highly as issues (85% and 65% of Lib Dem PPCs mention these respectively).

However Lib Dems also rate education high as an issue – one third (35%) mention this compared to a quarter (27%) of Conservative and a sixth (14%) of Labour. Given the Lib Dems history of garnering the majority of their support from the young, the highly educated, and students, their prioritising of this issue is perhaps unsurprising.

When it comes to government debt, the Lib Dems take a measured approach, with two-thirds (65%) saying they would prefer to reduce spending on public services in combination with increases in taxes. No Lib Dem PPCs side with their Conservative coalition partners in advocating the government tackle the deficit with reductions in spending solely but a third (35%) agree with Labour PPCs that taxes should be increased exclusively in order to reduce government debt.

In terms of priorities for cuts, Lib Dem PPCs are supporters of reduced defence spending – 69% of those who would reduce spending prioritise defence cuts. Given the Lib Dems policy of abolishing Trident, it is unsurprising that this is far and above the most popular option amongst Lib Dem candidates.

What, then, does this all mean for the public sector?

Cuts look likely to continue under a future Conservative-led government. By and large Conservative PPCs see the economy and the deficit as the two major issues facing Britain today and support reducing spending on public services to tackle the issue.

Spending has the potential to increase under a Labour-led government, although this is far from certain. Their candidates are divided over how to deal with the government debt issue, splitting into relatively even thirds on whether to increase taxes or increase taxes in combination with reduced spending.

The Lib Dems would like to see a measured approach taken, with tax increases used in combination with spending cuts to bring the deficit down. They see the education system as a priority for protection and look set to prioritise defence for the sharpest cutbacks.

Either way, the public sector should prepare to tighten its belt. Ipsos polling has given no single party a significant and sustained lead over this election campaign. Whichever party comes to power, cuts look likely to continue. It is the extent of them which will be decided on May 7th.

Download the computer tables (PDF)

Ipsos’s Survey of Prospective Parliamentary Candidates runs in the months before the general election. We interview c.100 candidates for election in marginal seats, defined as those needing less than a 15% swing to displace an incumbent. Interviews are carried out face-to-face. Results in this article are from fieldwork conducted in February/March 2015