Deloitte / Government Delivery Index

Gloomy Britain? Continuing pessimism over the future of the economy and public services

It appears that the British public are continuing to be gloomy about the future of the economy and public services, according to the latest Deloitte/Ipsos Government Delivery Index. Expectations among the public were generally at a historic low in early 2006, and this level of pessimism has broadly been maintained in the months since.

Two in five (38%) think that the Government's policies will improve the state of Britain's economy in the long-term, while around half (51%) disagree, with net optimism down by seven points since last November. Fewer -- one in three (33%) -- think the Government's policies will be good for public services, while a majority (57%) disagree with this.

Expectations for the NHS continue to be at their lowest level ever recorded by the Delivery Index since it started in March 2002, staying roughly in line with the figures recorded in March this year. Just over one in five (22%) think that the NHS will get better over the next few years, compared with 45% who think it will get worse, and net optimism is down by 32 points since the 2005 General Election.

Perhaps more worryingly for the Government, its previous 'success story' of education continues to be viewed pessimistically by the public, after a fall in optimism recorded earlier in the year. Under three in ten (28%) believe that education will improve but a similar level (26%) believe that it will get worse. This is down from a net optimism rating of +11 recorded in November 2005. This growing pessimism about the future of health and education may be evidence that the ongoing reforms of these services continue to have an unsettling impact on the public, as well as perhaps being a reflection of the recent negative headlines about the NHS plus some high profile opposition from staff delivering health and education services.

Attitudes towards the environment continue in their long-term decline. Over two in five (42%) think that the quality of the environment will get worse over the next few years, up from 33% three years ago.

More encouragingly for the Government, net optimism towards public transport has increased by five percentage points since March, and optimism here has been on a general upward trend over the last three years. Views on policing are evenly split and broadly stable since the previous Delivery Index.

Ben Page, Managing Director of Ipsos Public Affairs, said, "The public is continuing to hold a sceptical attitude about most public services. Nevertheless, expectations are broadly similar to the -- admittedly low -- levels recorded in March this year and have not fallen as in previous Delivery Index waves. It will be interesting to monitor in future waves whether this represents public perceptions beginning to 'turn the corner', or whether expectations are simply reaching the point where they can barely fall further. The Government will be most concerned about why -- unlike other major public services -- expectations for the NHS and education remain at historically low levels. This is likely to reflect recent media coverage of the NHS as well as of the Government more generally. The pace of change is also an issue -- staff in the NHS and education are concerned about the impact of the latest reforms, and they have a major impact on what the public think."

Mike Turley, head of public sector at Deloitte, comments: "These latest results suggest that the Government may need to consider its approach to public service delivery, particularly in areas such as the NHS and the environment. The public appears to remain sceptical about the likelihood of improvements in public services and the economy and their attitudes have worsened significantly over the past year. The public is particularly concerned about the prospects for the NHS and the environment. While there are many underlying causes of these perceptions, particularly recent negative media coverage, these results may indicate a need to reappraise how policy is being implemented in these areas."

Topline Results

• Ipsos interviewed 976 Great Britain adults 18+.
• Fieldwork conducted by telephone between 5-7 May 2006.
• Data weighted to the national population profile.
• An '*' indicates a finding of less than 0.5%, but greater than zero.
• Where percentages do not add up to exactly 100% this may be due to computer rounding, the exclusion of "don't knows" or to multiple answers.

On balance do you agree or disagree that...

Q1 In the long term, this government's policies will improve the state of Britain's economy?

Q2 In the long term, this government's policies will improve the state of Britain's public services?

Q3-7 Thinking about ... over the next few years do you expect it to ... ?