Election 'bounce' in house price optimism slips from all time high

Confidence in rising property prices reached its highest level in May 2015 since the inception of the Housing Market Confidence Tracker survey, before relaxing slightly in June 2015.

Confidence in rising property prices reached its highest level in May 2015 since the inception of the Housing Market Confidence Tracker survey, before relaxing slightly in June (Q2) 2015. House price optimism (the proportion of Britons who expect the average UK property price to rise over the next 12 months, less the proportion who think it will fall) reached +68 around the time of the General Election in May 2015, and has since slipped back to +64 as measured in the June 2015 survey wave.

In June (Q2), seven in ten Britons (69%) said they expect a rise in average property prices over the next 12 months compared to 5% who expect a fall. These figures were 72% and 4% respectively in the previous month (May 2015).

At the same time, buying sentiment has remained relatively stable: in June 2015, 56% of Britons said they think the next 12 months will be a good time to buy and 31% said they think it will be a bad time. The previous month in the May survey wave, 57% said ‘good time’ and 30% said ‘bad time’. This leaves positive buying sentiment strong, but falling short of the ‘survey high’ on this measure (where 63% of Britons said ‘good time to buy’ in December 2013).

Meanwhile selling sentiment has also remained positive and stable: two in five Britons (59%) said in June 2015 that the next 12 months will be a good time to sell (60% in May 2015) and 27% said ‘bad time to buy’ (26% in May 2015). Combining ‘buy’ and ‘sell’ sentiment, two in five Britons (41%) said they think it will both be a good time to buy and to sell – this figure stayed stable from May to June 2015.

When asked in the June (Q2) survey about interest rate changes, one half of the British public (48%) said they expect a rise in mortgage interest rates – the highest figure seen on this measure since February 2015 – compared to one quarter (26%) who expect a rise in savings interest rates.

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Technical note

Ipsos interviewed 1,960 British adults aged 16+ face-to-face, between 12th – 22nd June 2015, and 15th – 31st May 2015. Data has been weighted to the known population profile

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