Evening Standard Election Research: Poll 1

Topline Results

• MORI interviewed 1,973 British adults, aged 18+, in-home, face to face between 7-11 April 2005
• Data are weighted to reflect the national population profile
• An (*) indicates a finding of less than 0.5%, but greater than zero
• Where percentages do not add up to exactly 100% this may be due to computer rounding, the exclusion of "don't knows" or to multiple answers

Voting — all absolutely certain to vote — 58%

QA How would you vote if there were a General Election tomorrow? IF UNDECIDED OR REFUSED AT QA QB Which party are you most inclined to support? Base: 1,156 British adults

	%
Conservative	35
Labour	39
Liberal Democrats (Lib Dem)	21
Scottish/Welsh Nationalist	2
Green Party	2
UK Independence Party	1
Other	*
Lab lead (±%)	+4
Would not vote	*
Undecided	7
Refused	3

Voting — all naming a party

QA How would you vote if there were a General Election tomorrow? IF UNDECIDED OR REFUSED AT QA QB Which party are you most inclined to support? Base: 1,973 British adults

	%
Conservative	30
Labour	41
Liberal Democrats (Lib Dem)	22
Scottish/Welsh Nationalist	2
Green Party	2
UK Independence Party	1
Other	2
Lab lead (±%)	+11
Would not vote	9
Undecided	10
Refused	2

Q1 And how likely will you be to vote in the General Election, on a scale of 1 to 10, where 10 means you would be absolutely certain to vote, and 1 means that you would be absolutely certain not to vote?

	%
10 — absolutely certain to vote	58
9	6
8	8
7	4
6	3
5	6
4	2
3	2
2	2
1 — absolutely certain not to vote	8
Don't know	-
Refused	1

Q2 Which party did you vote for at the last General Election, in June 2001? If you are not sure or did not vote, please say so.

	%
Conservative	19
Labour	37
Liberal Democrats (Lib Dem)	13
Scottish/Welsh Nationalist	1
UK Independence Party	*
Green Party	1
Other	1
Did not vote	17
Too young	5
Can't remember	3
Refused	2

Q3 Have you definitely decided to vote for the [PARTY NAMED AT QA OR QB] party or is there a chance you may change your mind before you vote? Base: 1,549 British adults naming a party

	All	Con	Lab	Lib Dem
	%	%	%	%
Definitely decided	64	73	65	57
May change mind	32	25	31	41
Don't know	4	2	4	2

 See also Trends on this question

Q4 Which of the following comes closest to your reasons for intending to vote the [PARTY NAMED AT QA OR QB] party? Base: 1,549 British adults naming a party

	All	Con	Lab	Lib Dem
	%	%	%	%
It is the party that most represents your views OR	80	85	81	72
The party you support has little chance of winning in this constituency so you vote for [PARTY NAMED AT QA OR QB] party to try to keep another party out	12	11	10	20
Don't know	8	4	9	8

 See also Trends on this question

Key Election Issues

Q5 Looking ahead to the next General Election, which, if any, of these issues do you think will be very important to you in helping you decide which party to vote for?

	All	London
	%	%
Health care	67	62
Education	61	66
Law and order	56	42
Pensions	49	37
Taxation	42	33
Asylum	37	32
Managing the economy	35	34
Protecting the natural environment	28	22
Housing	27	34
Public transport	26	40
Unemployment	25	25
Defence	19	13
Europe	19	18
Iraq	18	20
Animal welfare	14	6
Constitution / Devolution	8	5
Don't know	4	3
Other	2	-

 See also Trends on this question

Q6 I am going to read out a list of issues facing Britain today and for each one, I would like you to tell me whether you think that the Conservatives, Labour, Liberal Democrats or some other party has the best policy on each? Base: All who say each issue is very important

		Con	Lab	Lib Dem	Other	None of these	Don't know
		%	%	%	%	%	%
Q6 Animal welfare	(271)	9	24	8	11	7	42
Q7 Asylum	(830)	52	11	8	5	5	18
Q8 Constitution / Devolution	(179)	32	18	14	8	4	24
Q9 Defence	(400)	36	22	5	2	5	29
Q10 Education	(593)	20	35	16	2	6	21
Q11 Europe	(437)	32	21	16	9	5	17
Q12 Healthcare	(1,378)	22	36	10	1	6	25
Q13 Housing	(561)	11	31	9	3	7	39
Q14 Iraq	(370)	19	10	39	4	7	21
Q15 Law and order	(1,205)	38	26	5	1	5	24
Q16 Managing the economy	(730)	23	53	4	2	4	14
Q17 Pensions	(997)	23	25	12	1	9	30
Q18 Protecting the natural environment	(579)	8	14	25	25	5	23
Q19 Public transport	(520)	10	31	14	5	9	31
Q20 Taxation	(837)	30	24	10	1	6	28
Q21 Unemployment	(484)	13	44	4	2	6	31

Q22-23 To what extent do you agree or disagree with the following statements?

	Strongly agree	Tend to agree	Neither agree nor disagree	Tend to disagree	Strongly disagree	Don't know
	%	%	%	%	%	%
Q22 The Conservative Party want to cut public spending by £35 billion	7	25	19	21	12	16
Q23 The government is open and honest about the scale of immigration into Britain	2	15	12	31	34	6

Q24 Do you think you and your family would be financially better off under a Labour or a Conservative government?

	%
Conservative	28
Labour	36
Other	3
Don't know	24
None	9

Q25 Who do you think would make the most capable Prime Minister - Tony Blair or Gordon Brown?

	All	Conservative supporters	Labour supporters	Lib Dem supporters
	%	%	%	%
Tony Blair	33	22	52	31
Gordon Brown	41	49	34	46
Don't know	26	29	14	22

 See also Trends on this question