Financial Times Election Research - Poll 1

MORI's latest election poll, conducted over the weekend exclusively for The Financial Times, reveals that among 55% of the electorate who say they are absolutely certain to vote, the Conservative Party now have a five point lead over Labour, with the Liberal Democrats on 21%.

The poll clearly illustrates the impact that a low turnout could have in the forthcoming general election. Among all naming a party, Labour would have a five point lead over the Conservatives, 38% to 33%.

The explanation for this difference lies in the fact that Conservative supporters are much more likely to say they will vote at the election (77%) compared to those identifying with Labour (57%).

For a more detailed analysis of these results, read Electoral Volatility by Sir Robert Worcester

Topline Results

• MORI interviewed 1,001 British adults aged 18+ by telephone between 1-3 April 2005
• Data are weighted to the national population profile
• An (*) indicates a finding of less than 0.5%, but greater than zero
• Where percentages do not add up to exactly 100% this may be due to computer rounding, the exclusion of "don't knows" or to multiple answers

Voting — all naming a party

Q1 How would you vote if there were a General Election tomorrow? Would you vote Conservative, Labour, Liberal Democrat or for another party? IF UNDECIDED OR REFUSED AT Q1 Q2 Which party are you most inclined to support? Base: 1,001 British adults 18+

	%
Conservative	33
Labour	38
Liberal Democrats (Lib Dem)	23
Scottish/Welsh Nationalist	2
Green Party	2
UK Independence Party	2
Other	*
Lab lead (±%)	+5
Would not vote	11
Undecided	9
Refused	1

Voting — all absolutely certain to vote

Q1 How would you vote if there were a General Election tomorrow? Would you vote Conservative, Labour, Liberal Democrat or for another party? IF UNDECIDED OR REFUSED AT Q1 Q2 Which party are you most inclined to support? Base: All 'absolutely certain to vote' (551)

	%
Conservative	39
Labour	34
Liberal Democrats (Lib Dem)	21
Scottish/Welsh Nationalist	2
Green Party	2
UK Independence Party	2
Other	*
Lab lead (±%)	-5
Would not vote	1
Undecided	7
Refused	2

Q3 Have you definitely decided to vote for the … party or is there a chance you may change your mind before you vote? Base: All naming a party (792)

	%
Definitely decided	57
May change mind	41
Don't know	1

 See also Trends on this question

Q4 And how likely would you be to vote in an immediate General Election, on a scale of 1 to 10, where 10 means you would be absolutely certain to vote, and 1 means that you would be absolutely certain not to vote?

	%
10 — absolutely certain to vote	55
9	6
8	9
7	5
6	3
5	7
4	2
3	2
2	2
1 — absolutely certain not to vote	8
Don't know	1
Refused	*

 See also Trends on this question

Q5 Who do you think would make the most capable Prime Minister — Mr Blair, Mr Howard or Mr Kennedy?

	%
Tony Blair	36
Michael Howard	22
Charles Kennedy	14
Don't know	28

 See also Trends on this question

Q6 Which political party do you think has the best team of leaders to deal with the country's problems?

	%
Conservative	20
Labour	37
Liberal Democrats	8
Other	3
None	13
Don't know	18

 See also Trends on this question

Q7 Which political party do you think has the best policies for the country as a whole?

	%
Conservative	25
Labour	30
Liberal Democrats	17
Other	3
None	8
Don't know	17

 See also Trends on this question

Q8 Which political party do you think is most clear and united about what its policies should be?

	%
Conservative	18
Labour	28
Liberal Democrats	25
Other	3
None	11
Don't know	15

 See also Trends on this question

Q9 Which political party do you think would be the best at looking after the interests of people like you?

	%
Conservative	27
Labour	30
Liberal Democrats	16
Other	3
None	9
Don't know	16

 See also Trends on this question

Q10 Which political party is best placed to run the most effective election campaign?

	%
Conservative	17
Labour	46
Liberal Democrats	6
Other	2
None	6
Don't know	24