General Election 2001 - Election Digest

Latest ICM/Guardian Findings: Labour Lead Cut To 11 Points Women, Politicians And The Truth Welsh First-Time Voters Findings

Latest ICM/Guardian Findings: Labour Lead Cut To 11 Points

Labour's lead over the Tories has dropped from 19 points last week to 11 points according to the latest ICM/Guardian survey. Labour now has a 43% share of the vote (down 4 points), the Tories 32% (up 4), and the Liberal Democrats 19% (up 2).

ICM's findings suggest that turnout will be around the "mid 60s" compared with a turnout of 71% recorded in the 1997 election. 9% of registered voters say they are not going to vote compared with 2% four years ago. 7% of Labour supporters say the prospect of a Labour landslide makes them more likely to vote Labour and 5% of Tories and 4% of Liberal Democrats also say that such a prospect makes them more likely to vote Labour.

William Hague's personal rating has improved 5 points since last week with 17% now thinking he would make the best Prime Minister. Tony Blair and Charles Kennedy's ratings have changed slightly on 44% (down 1 point) and 13% (up 2) respectively. Two-thirds, 67%, of voters agree that Tony Blair is "experienced" and 62% agree he "has a lot of personality", making these the two attributes out of seven most associated with the Prime Minister. Less positively, 58% agree "he has more style than substance".

Among Tory voters, approaching seven in ten, 68%, are unable to correctly identify Tory policy on education when given Conservative, Labour and Lib Dem manifesto pledges. Almost as many think Labour policy is Tory policy on education as correctly identify Tory policy (31% and 32% respectively). 37% of Tories are able to correctly identify their party's policy on the euro, and 45% do so on health policy.

Over a third, 36%, believe public services such as schools and hospitals will get better under a Labour government; 41% believe they will stay the same and 16% think they will get worse.

Source: ICM / The Guardian, 6 June 2001 Technical details: ICM interviewed a random sample of 1,009 adults by telephone across Britain between 2-4 June 2001. Results have been weighted to a profile of all adults.

Women, Politicians And The Truth

Almost half, 45%, of female readers of the women's magazine That's Life believe Tony Blair is the "biggest liar of all politicians" according to a survey. William Hague comes second on 26%, John Prescott third on 13%, followed by Michael Portillo on 7% and Peter Mandelson on 4%.

Source: The Daily Telegraph, 6 June 2001. Technical details: 1,000 female readers of That's Life magazine were questioned. No other details given.

Welsh First-Time Voters Findings

Nearly three-quarters, 72%, of Welsh people eligible to vote for the first time intend to vote at the General Election according to a Monitor Wales survey of 300 such voters. Among this group, Labour have a 44% share, the Tories are on 17%, the Liberal Democrats 9%, and Plaid Cymru 4%. A quarter, 26%, are undecided. Half say they are following the Election campaign in the media and 62% believe that the Government has failed to live up to its promises.

Source: The Western Mail, 6 June 2001. Technical details: 300 Welsh voters eligible to vote for the first time were questioned. No other details given.