Government Delivery Index

Labour 'Buys Time' Over Public Service

Government retains public confidence on education and NHS

The public remains optimistic the Government will improve the state of education and the NHS over the next few years, though they are unconvinced by Labour's policies for public services as a whole, according to new figures from the MORI Social Research Institute.

Between June 2001 and March 2002, there was a steady decline in optimism on whether people agree that Government policies would improve public services over the next few years, from a +22 points rating to a low -18 points.

In May 2002 -- after the budget -- the balance remained negative but there was a decrease in this negative rating to -12 points. In the new poll the figure is -14, so things are effectively unchanged.

The most striking change in the post-budget (May) MORI Delivery Index figures was in optimism over the Government's chances of improving the NHS. The balance expecting a better NHS "over the next few years" went from a -2 points rating (March 2002) to a +14 points rating in the May Survey. Although this has fallen back to a +8 points rating now, some of the post-budget optimism at least still remains. There seem good grounds for linking the increased optimism with the tax rises announced in the budget: MORI's post-election poll for the FT showed 65% of the public saying they thought the Budget was good for Britain -- the best findings for almost 30 years.

There have been improvements elsewhere as well. There is increasing confidence about education, which shows an expectations rating up from +15 points in May to a +23 points rating in September.

The public are divided on policing, with 25% expecting an improvement and 22% expecting things to get worse. This +3 rating is broadly in line with the figures from earlier in the year.

On the face of it, the big problem, in terms of the four key services the government has promised to improve (health, education, transport, crime) remains public transport. Of the services. It is on this one that the public is most pessimistic about prospects for improvement. Ratings of public transport enjoyed a short term increase in May from a negative (-10 points) rating in March 2002 to -4 points two months later. This has now fallen back to -8 points.

However, this does not seem to be a disaster for Labour -- at least not yet. MORI's last quarterly figures show only 17% identifying transport as a key issue facing Britain (compared with 54% who mention health). And the Conservatives have never been ahead of Labour in MORI's polls on which party is seen as having the best transport policies.

Until the opposition can articulate a clear convincing vision on what its alternative is on public services, or the economy goes belly-up, Labour's record on public services will continue to pass muster. That is, until the electorate's patience runs out.

There is of course the wider question of the economy. Ratings on longer term economic prospects improved from -3 (in March) to +5 in the May post-budget measurement. This has now fallen back a little, to -2 points in September. One key issue to watch out for may be the potential conflict over Iraq and its possible impact on economic confidence.

Technical details

• MORI interviewed 603 adults 18+
• Fieldwork conducted by telephone between 5-8 September 2002
• Data weighted to the national population profile
• An '*' indicates a finding of less than 0.5%, but greater than zero
• Where percentages do not add up to exactly 100% this may be due to computer rounding, the exclusion of "don't knows" or to multiple answers

On balance do you agree or disagree that ...

Q1 In the long term, this government's policies will improve the state of Britain's economy?

Q2 In the long term, this government's policies will improve the state of Britain's public services?

Q3-7 Thinking about ... over the next few years do you expect it to ... ?