Half of Britons more fearful than hopeful about how Labour’s Budget announcements will impact public services, their personal finances - however, Labour more trusted on the economy than the Conservatives

A new Ipsos poll, conducted between October 11-14, 2024, reveals that half of Britons are more fearful than hopeful about how Labour’s Budget announcements will impact public services (46% to 18%), as well as their personal finances (53% to 11%).

A new Ipsos poll, conducted between October 11-14, 2024, reveals that half of Britons are more fearful than hopeful about how Labour’s Budget announcements will impact public services (46% to 18%), as well as their personal finances (53% to 11%).

Half of Britons are fearful about how announcements in the upcoming budget might impact their own financial situation
  • These fears are coupled with broad expectations that it’s likely the Labour government will increase the taxes that Britons personally pay (71%), with only 17% thinking it’s unlikely.
  • Half of Britons (51%) think it’s likely that the government will increase spending on public services, with more than 1 in 3 (36%) thinking it’s unlikely.
  • 2 in 5 think Rachel Reeves is doing a bad job as Chancellor of the Exchequer (40%), with 1 in 5 (18%) thinking she’s doing a good job.
  • However, Labour remains more trusted than the Conservatives on the economy (31% vs 24%). However, their lead over Conservatives has narrowed considerably since the summer (currently +7, vs +14 in August).

What would the public like to see from the Government in the Budget?

  • A slightly larger share of Britons would prefer the Government to increase borrowing to spend more on public services, even if it means the national debt getting higher (35%), rather than reduce borrowing to cut the national debt, even if it means spending less on public services (31%). 
  • Similarly, more than 1 in 3 (35%) would prefer the government increase spending on public services, even if it means they personally pay more in tax. This compares to 29% who would prefer that the government cut the taxes they pay personally, even if it means they spend less on public services. 
  • The gap between these two choices has narrowed considerably since the summer. Today the gap is 6 points (35% to 29%) whereas in June it was 13 (40% vs 27%).
  • Should the government need to increase taxes in order to raise revenue, income tax paid on income over £125k is the tax the largest share Britons would like to see raised (46%). The next most popular options included tobacco and alcohol duty (31%), corporation tax (28%), and income tax paid on income between £50k and £125k.
  • The public remains divided as to whether they would support (40%) or oppose (38%) means testing the Winter Fuel Allowance. Support for doing so is highest amongst those under 55, with support significantly lower among Britons 55+.

Conservative party leadership candidates vs Keir Starmer

  • The public think Keir Starmer would make a better Prime Minister than either remaining Conservative Party leadership candidates (31% vs 18% who prefer Robert Jenrick; 30% vs 18% who prefer Kemi Badenoch).
  • However, in both match-ups, the largest share of the public think neither Starmer nor Badenoch or Jenrick would make the better prime minister (33% vs Jenrick; 36% vs Badenoch).
Keir Starmer holds a lead over both Conservative Party leadership candidates, in terms of who the public think would make the better Prime Minister
  • Half of Britons (48%) think neither Kemi Badenoch nor Robert Jenrick would make a better prime minister. Those who had a preference were divided between thinking Kemi Badenoch would make the better PM (14%) and thinking Robert Jenrick would make the better PM (15%).

Commenting on the findings, Keiran Pedley, Director of Politics at Ipsos UK, said:

These findings show the public are pessimistic about the state of the British economy, fearful for the future and unsure of the right remedy for the challenges facing the economy and public services. However, it isn’t all bad news for the government. Labour are more trusted on the economy than the Conservatives and tax rises are already baked into public expectations. What they do expect is more money for public services when the Chancellor stands up to deliver her budget next week.

Technical note: 

  • Ipsos interviewed a representative sample of 1,143 British adults aged 18+. Interviews were conducted online between 11th-16th October 2024.  
  • Data are weighted to match the profile of the population. All polls are subject to a wide range of potential sources of error.

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