Half of Britons think there should be a by-election in Ashfield following Lee Anderson’s defection to Reform UK

• Just three in ten Britons familiar with Lee Anderson.
• But almost half of 2019 Conservative voters think his defection is positive for Reform UK.

New polling from Ipsos, taken 11th-12th March, 2024 explores public attitudes to Lee Anderson’s decision to leave the Conservative Party and join Reform UK.

When asked if they are familiar with a prompted list of leading British politicians, just three in ten (30%) say they are familiar with Lee Anderson. This is more than his new party leader Richard Tice (16%) but considerably less than other leading politicians such as Rishi Sunak (84%), David Cameron (80%), Keir Starmer (76%) and Nigel Farage (73%).

Impact of Anderson defection

Overall, a third of Britons (33%) think Lee Anderson’s defection to Reform UK will have a negative impact on the Conservative Party. 12% say it will have a positive impact and 42% say it will make no difference. 

Meanwhile, 31% think Mr Anderson’s defection will have a positive impact on Reform UK, 15% say negative and 39% say it will make no difference. Almost half of 2019 Conservative voters (46%) think it will have a positive impact on Reform UK.

What should happen next?

When asked to choose, almost half of Britons (49%) say there should be a by-election as soon as possible in Lee Anderson’s Ashfield constituency as he was elected as an MP for another party. Nearly one in four (23%) say there is no need for a by-election because there will be a General Election between now and January 2025 latest. The remaining 28% have no preference or say they don’t know. 

Ipsos Director of Politics Keiran Pedley said of the findings:

Despite Mr Anderson already saying there will not be a by-election in Ashfield, a significant number of the public think there should be. On the bigger picture, it is hard to be sure what impact his decision to join Reform UK will have. Lee Anderson is not particularly well known and the absence of a set piece by-election victory, with the coverage that would draw, may mean the news cycle moves on quickly. Unless, of course, there are further defections to come.

Technical note

Ipsos interviewed a representative quota sample of 1,139 adults aged 18-75 in Great Britain. Interviews took place on 11-12th March 2024. Data has been weighted to the known offline population proportions. All polls are subject to a wide range of potential sources of error.