Homes for Britain: Britain for homes?

Speech given by Ben Marshall, Ipsos Research Director at the Homes for Britain reception, Labour Party conference 2013, 23 September, 19.30-21.00. A similar speech was given at the Conservative Party conference 2013, 30 September.

Thank you for inviting me to talk on this important topic. I’m going to talk about public attitudes towards housing.

In my five minutes I am going to share 10 key stats from our polling. The thread running through my commentary on these is the question…‘Is Britain for Homes?’ Firstly…1. 80% of the British public agree that “there is a housing crisis in Britain”. Half of these strongly agree. But crisis sentiments are not entirely new. A poll we did for Shelter found three-quarters agreeing that “it will be more difficult for our children to find housing”, six in ten disagreeing that “rising house prices are a good thing”. The year? 1993. Something else hasn’t changed; the British have remained steadfast in their desire to own rather than rent homes. 2. Nationally, our poll for the Chartered Institute of Housing in June, found 33% of those with rent or mortgage payments concerned that they won’t be able to make these payments next year. It is affordability which is on the minds and lips of the public. By a margin of 5 to 1, mortgage holders expect house prices to rise rather than fall over the next year, by 23 to 1 private renters expect rent rises, and it’s 74 to 1 among social renters. And nine in ten Brits agree that “it will be harder for the children of today to buy/rent than it is for me”. The housing crisis seems to be part of the so-called ‘cost of living crisis’. It is also a confidence crisis, a worry that aspiration won’t be met. 3. Londoners are a little under twice as likely than average to identify housing as an important issue. National polls mask sharp difference by regions. For example, that same poll for the CIH found 45% of Londoners concerned about their ability to pay housing costs in the next 12 months. Londoners are much more likely to anticipate price and rent rises. And while affordable housing has not historically been among the top things that people want improving locally – but nevertheless above health services, crime and schools – it has historically been highest in the south of England. 4. 78% of MPs report receiving more contact from constituents about housing than a range of other subjects This is one to watch because there is some evidence that this can be a leading indicator of an issue gaining salience among the public. Media coverage matters too: we have found that public interest in an issue is more driven by, than being a driver of, the media agenda. 5. 82% of the public want the Coalition Government to give housing more attention Of course, the Coalition Government do give housing attention. So too do each of the main political parties. But at the same time, the Social Market Foundation’s analysis has shown that from the 1940s to the early 1980s, Conservative and Labour party manifestos always contained a significant chunk on housing – sometimes 10%. But in the past decade the proportion has hovered around 2%. 6. 44% of the public choose building more affordable homes from a list of seven potential housing priorities This makes it comfortably top. We have also found stronger public backing for building new housing as a route to economic growth in preference to other types of infrastructure project; 8 times the proportion choosing airport capacity, 10 times for High Speed Rail. 7. 59% of Councillors said last year that public opposition had been a barrier to new housing developments in their area in the past two years This made it the most important barrier in the eyes of Councillors. That same poll by the LGA found four in five councillors (84%) saying that their local authority area is in need of new housing. 8. 49% of the public DISagree that there is a housing crisis locally And 45% DISagree that new homes need to be built locally. But there are some inconsistencies here. For example, a third (36%) of those who think there is insufficient affordable housing disagree that new homes need to be built. 9. 58% support for new home building in principle becomes 77% if it allows young people to stay in the area and 68% if it helps to create jobs This comes from a survey we did in Canterbury for the Council to inform their Local Plan. But, note, the same survey found a swing away from support if building on greenfield is necessary, and pressure is put on infrastructure. This is fairly typical; there are ‘protect’ and ‘progress’ sentiments in public opinion. Finally, 10. By 38% to 28% Londoners choose building fewer homes with higher design standards, rather than more homes with lower design standards This comes from our poll for the Berkeley Group published last Friday.

Other work we’ve done for RIBA, and research by Shelter, suggests that new builds have something of an image problem. They are perceived (correctly) to be smaller and pricier. And poor design can stimulate local opposition to new building.

1. Framing and articulating housing as the kind of mass issue that gets attention. This is likely to involve engaging the electorally more powerful owner and mortgagee groups (as well as mobilising renters), connecting the generations and tenures – like Shelter’s ‘Bank of Mum and Dad’ campaign – and making housing less private commodity, more social asset.
2. Convincing people that housing is something elections and politics can do something about in the short-term, and moving from crisis-talk to solutions while also challenging mis-perceptions such as the extent to which Britain is already built upon.
3. Local attention and leadership. The next election will be fought nationally and in constituencies – in the words of one Lib-Dem Cabinet minister it will be “650 by-elections”. And Localism gives local councils, business and communities, new responsibilities and opportunities right now. There is, I think, possibly a risk that politicians follow what they think opinion is, and don’t lead it to where they think it ought to be in the best interests of the whole community. Engaging the wider public is important – there can be a difference between the opinions of ‘vocal locals’ and silent majorities.

The overall challenge is probably that Homes for Britain is a strategic, national imperative also in the hands, hearts and minds of local politicians people as much, if not more, than anyone. The public needs listening to, and leading.

Thank you. 10 key stats – sources 1. Ipsos/Evening Standard, January 2013 2. Ipsos/Chartered Institute of Housing, June 2013 3. Ipsos/Economist Issues Index, August 2013 4. Ipsos/Summer MPs survey, 2012 5. Ipsos/Evening Standard, January 2013 6. Ipsos/Channel 4, November 2011 7. LGA’s research, Housing the Nation, February-March 2012 8. Ipsos/Evening Standard, January 2013 9. Ipsos/Canterbury City Council, 2011-12 10. Ipsos/Berkeley Group, May 2013