Ipsos Delivery Index, March 2007

Ipsos's latest findings from our quarterly Delivery Index tracker survey show that public confidence in the future of the NHS remains at a very low level, although confidence in the future of education remains higher. The proportion of the public saying they expect the NHS to get worse over the next few years has risen from 46% in November 2006 to 49% now; the proportion who think the NHS will improve remains steady at 19%.

Confidence in the NHS drops among Labour supporters

Worryingly for Labour, confidence in the future of the NHS -- a key issue at General Elections -- has dropped among those individuals who identify themselves as Labour supporters: currently, 33% of Labour supporters think the NHS will get better and the same percentage think it will get worse, yielding a 'net' (better minus worse) figure of zero. In November 2006, this 'net' figure was +8 (35% better / 27% worse) -- a drop of 8 points over the last quarter. Topline figures at the end of this document summarise the data.

Public sector workers may also be deserting Labour

Ipsos's research highlights the impact of what public sector staff say about services and public perceptions. Our latest analysis shows that public sector workers (traditionally considered among the 'core' of Labour's supporters) may have been swayed by David Cameron and the Conservatives' promises to reduce central target-setting and central top-down 'managerialism': public sector workers' support for Labour is in decline. Our commentary column last week (Are Public Sector Workers Deserting Labour?) finds that there has been a 6 percent swing in voting intentions from Labour to the Tories among public sector workers since last September. These findings come at a tricky time for the Government, with the Chancellor's budget to be delivered in just two days.

Public optimism about other public sector services is better

Public optimism about other public services including education, transport, the environment and policing have improved since September 2006; optimism about transport continues a gentle upward curve (from a low base). Education remains the service the public are most optimistic about.

Ben Page, Managing Director of Public Affairs at Ipsos, said "Our latest results highlight the challenges the government faces in restoring optimism about the NHS. Even though local patient satisfaction data is positive, hearing about deficits and closures elsewhere is clearly having a major effect on public opinion about the NHS as a whole. Moreover, we know that despite considerable investment in better pay and resources, staff are becoming more negative in many areas of the public sector -- reinforcing negative media coverage".

Topline Results

• Ipsos interviewed 980 Great Britain adults 18+.
• Fieldwork conducted by telephone between 9-11 March 2007.
• An '*' indicates a finding of less than 0.5%, but greater than zero.
• Where percentages do not add up to exactly 100% this may be due to computer rounding, the exclusion of "don't knows" or to multiple answers.
• Data are weighted to match the profile of the population.
• Full data tabulations (weighted and unweighted) are available upon request.

On balance do you agree or disagree that...

Q1 In the long term, this government's policies will improve the state of Britain's economy?

Q2 In the long term, this government's policies will improve the state of Britain's public services?

Q3-7 Thinking about ... over the next few years do you expect it to ... ?