Ipsos Delivery Index, September 2007

The first wave of a major new study -- the Delivery Index -- is launched by Ipsos today. It shows the scale of the challenge facing Prime Minister Gordon Brown as he tries to develop a new style of politics to define his premiership.

The Ipsos Delivery Index asks a range of questions about the public's attitudes to public services and the economy, as well as confidence on key issues such as skills in Britain's workforce, immigration, trust in government, and the extent to which people feel they have an influence over the running of the country. It will act as a benchmark to measure the new government's success in delivering its priorities, and changing the mood of the country.

A divided country?

The country is currently split on its prognosis for the new government. Just under half, 46%, trust the government to act in the best interests of the country, compared to 43% who disagree. There is a clear division on party lines: three-quarters (76%) of Labour supporters say they trust the government to act in the country's best interests, compared to one-quarter (24%) of Conservative supporters. LibDems are slightly more positive than Tories -- a third (35%) of them say they trust the government.

A new politics -- engaging the public

Gordon Brown has made it clear that he sees engaging people in government and politics as one of his key challenges, and looking at the measures in the Confidence Index, he is right to do so. Only 19% feel they have an influence over the way public services are delivered, and even fewer -- 13% -- feel they have an influence over government policies. We will be tracking public opinion to see whether the initiatives set up by the new government to increase citizen engagement will improve these scores over time.

The economy and public services -- has Brown bounced

Looking at the public's confidence in the government's policies for the economy and public services, it seems that the `Brown bounce' is over, as optimism has returned to its fairly stable level seen before Gordon Brown took over. Thirty-nine per cent agree that, in the long-term, this government's policies will improve the state of Britain's economy, and 33% are positive about the long-term affect of the government's policies on Britain's public services (both down five points since May).

For the key public services, optimism for the future of the NHS has dipped and is now very low -- a quarter (23%) of the general public expect the NHS to get better over the next 12 months, while 42% say it will get worse. Ratings of education and public transport are better, with more thinking they will get better than get worse ("better" ratings of 33% and 30% respectively). The public also needs reassurance on two key policy areas identified by the new government; 30% think that opportunities for young people will get better, and only 26% think that skills in Britain's workforce will improve.

The Index also shows a lack of confidence in the government on three major challenges: reducing crime (just 23% are confident in the government to do this in the next few years), pensions (also 23% confident), and controlling / managing immigration (20%). However, the public is slightly more optimistic about the environment -- 38% have confidence in the government's ability to deal with climate change.

Bobby Duffy, Deputy Managing Director of Ipsos said: "This major new survey shows just how much work the government has to do to engage the British people and regain their trust. There will be no quick or easy answers, but rebuilding confidence in the government is its most important task -- and we'll be tracking how it does over the coming months."

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Topline Results

• Ipsos interviewed 952 British adults 18+
• Fieldwork conducted by telephone between 31 August - 2 September 2007
• Data weighted to the national population profile
• An '*' indicates a finding of less than 0.5%, but greater than zero
• Where percentages do not add up to exactly 100% this may be due to computer rounding, the exclusion of "don't knows" or to multiple answers

On balance, do you agree or disagree that with the statements that ...

Q1 In the long term, this government's policies will improve the state of Britain's economy?

Q2 In the long term, this government's policies will improve the state of Britain's public services?

Q3-7 Thinking about ... over the next few years do you expect it to ... ?

Q8-12 How confident, if at all, are you the government will ... in the next few years?

Q13-16 On balance, do you agree or disagree with each of the following statements?