Ipsos Political Monitor, April 2008
Ipsos's April Political Monitor (conducted 17-22 April 2008) shows the Conservatives leading over Labour by nine points among those 'certain to vote' at an upcoming general election (40% compared to 31%).
The economy is now ranked the third-most important issue facing the country (33%), while race relations / immigration (42%) and crime / law & order (35%) remain the top most concerning issues.
Satisfaction with the Government remains unchanged since March, with net satisfaction at -40% (compared to -39% in March). However, Brown's personal ratings have dropped seven points in the last month, from a 'net satisfaction' (satisfied minus dissatisfied) score of -31% to -38%. Among Labour supporters, 44% are satisfied with Brown and 42% dissatisfied, yielding a net satisfaction score of +2%. This is the lowest net score for an incumbent Prime Minister since August 1994 (John Major).
Just over a third (35%)of the public are satisfied with the way David Cameron is doing his job as leader of the Conservatives, a third are dissatisfied (33%), and the remaining third (32%) say they 'dont' know'.
Economic optimism remains low, with two-thirds (66%) believeing the general economic condition of the country will get worse over the next 12 months, and just 9% thinking it will improve.
Topline Results
- Ipsos interviewed a representative quota sample of 1,059 adults aged 18+ at 203 sampling points across Great Britain.
- Interviews were conducted face-to-face on 17-22 April 2008.
- Data are weighted to match the profile of the population.
- Download the data tabulations pdf, 238KB
- Download the presentation slides pdf, 221KB
Voting -- all absolutely certain to vote
Q1 How would you vote if there were a General Election tomorrow?
(If undecided or refused at Q1)
Q2 Which party are you most inclined to support?
Base: All 'absolutely certain to vote' (582)
| % | |
|---|---|
| Conservative | 40 |
| Labour | 31 |
| Liberal Democrats (Lib Dem) | 19 |
| Scottish/Welsh Nationalist | 3 |
| Green Party | 3 |
| UK Independence Party | 2 |
| Other | 2 |
| Lab lead (177%) | -9 |
| Would not vote | 2 |
| Undecided | 7 |
| Refused | 2 |
Voting -- all
Q1 How would you vote if there were a General Election tomorrow?
(If undecided or refused at Q1)
Which party are you most inclined to support?
Base: All naming a party (1,059)
| % | |
|---|---|
| Conservative | 37 |
| Labour | 38 |
| Liberal Democrats (Lib Dem) | 16 |
| Scottish/Welsh Nationalist | 2 |
| Green Party | 3 |
| UK Independence Party | 2 |
| Other | 2 |
| Lab lead (177%) | +1 |
| Would not vote | 13 |
| Undecided | 12 |
| Refused | 2 |
Q3 Are you satisfied or dissatisfied with the way the Government is running the country?Q4 Are you satisfied or dissatisfied with the way Mr Brown is doing his job as Prime Minister?Q5 Are you satisfied or dissatisfied with the way Mr Cameron is doing his job as leader of the Conservative Party?Q6 Are you satisfied or dissatisfied with the way Nick Clegg is doing his job as leader of the Liberal Democrats?
Base: 1,059 British adults 18+
| Satisfied | Dissatisfied | Don't know | Index | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| % | % | % | 177% | |
| Government (Q3) | 26 | 66 | 8 | -40 |
| Brown (Q4) | 23 | 61 | 16 | -38 |
| Cameron (Q5) | 35 | 33 | 32 | +2 |
| Clegg (Q6) | 20 | 25 | 56 | -5 |
Q3 Are you satisfied or dissatisfied with the way the Government is running the country?Q4 Are you satisfied or dissatisfied with the way Mr Brown is doing his job as Prime Minister?Q5 Are you satisfied or dissatisfied with the way Mr Cameron is doing his job as leader of the Conservative Party?Q6 Are you satisfied or dissatisfied with the way Nick Clegg is doing his job as leader of the Liberal Democrats?
Base: All party supporters
| Base | Satisfied | Dissatisfied | Don't know | Index | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| n | % | % | % | % | |
| Government (Q3) | 293 | 48 | 42 | 10 | +6 |
| Brown (Q4) | 293 | 44 | 42 | 14 | +2 |
| Cameron (Q5) | 276 | 62 | 19 | 19 | +43 |
| Clegg (Q6) | 130 | 47 | 19 | 34 | +28 |
Q7 What would you say is the most important issue facing Britain today? (Spontaneous)Q8 What do you see as other important issues facing Britain today? (Spontaneous)
Base: 1,059 British adults 18+
| Q7 | Q7/8 | |
|---|---|---|
| % | % | |
| Race relations/immigration/immigrants | 25 | 42 |
| Crime/law & order/violence/ vandalism/anti-social (yob) behaviour | 15 | 35 |
| Economy/economic situation | 16 | 33 |
| National Health Service/Hospitals/ Health care | 4 | 23 |
| Defence/foreign affairs/international terrorism | 6 | 20 |
| Education/schools | 3 | 14 |
| Housing | 3 | 13 |
| Inflation/prices | 4 | 11 |
| Taxation | 4 | 11 |
| Drug abuse | 2 | 8 |
| Morality/individual behaviour | 2 | 7 |
| Pollution/environment | 2 | 7 |
| Poverty/inequality | 2 | 7 |
| Unemployment/factory closure/lack of industry | 2 | 6 |
| Pensions/social security/benefits | 1 | 6 |
| Petrol prices/fuel | 1 | 6 |
| Common Market/EU/Europe/EURO | 1 | 4 |
| Low pay/minimum wage/fair wages | 1 | 4 |
| Local government/council tax | 1 | 3 |
| Public services in general | * | 3 |
| Transport/public transport | * | 2 |
| AIDS | * | 1 |
| Countryside/rural life | * | 1 |
| Nuclear weapons/nuclear war/disarmament | * | 1 |
| Pound/exchange rate/value of pound | * | 1 |
| Privatisation | * | 1 |
| Scottish/Welsh Assembly/Devolution Constitutional reform | * | 1 |
| Bird flu/Flu pandemic | * | * |
| GM/GM (Genetically Modified) foods | * | * |
| Trade unions/strikes | * | * |
| Animal welfare | 0 | * |
| Foot and mouth outbreak/farming crisis | 0 | * |
| Northern Ireland | 0 | * |
| Other | 2 | 4 |
| Don't know | 4 | 4 |
Q9 Do you think that the general economic condition of the country will improve, stay the same, or get worse over the next 12 months?
Base: 1,059 British adults 18+
| % | |
|---|---|
| Improve | 9 |
| Stay the same | 19 |
| Get worse | 66 |
| Don't know | 5 |
| Ipsos EOI | -57 |
Q10 And how likely would you be to vote in an immediate General Election, on a scale of 1 to 10, where 10 means you would be absolutely certain to vote, and 1 means that you would be absolutely certain not to vote?
Base: 1,059 British adults 18+
| % | |
|---|---|
| 10 -- absolutely certain to vote | 54 |
| 9 | 5 |
| 8 | 7 |
| 7 | 4 |
| 6 | 3 |
| 5 | 6 |
| 4 | 2 |
| 3 | 2 |
| 2 | 1 |
| 1 -- absolutely certain not to vote | 10 |
| Don't know | 5 |
| Refused | * |
