Ipsos Political Monitor July 2009

Ipsos's July Political Monitor (carried out by telephone between 17-19 July among 1,012 British adults aged 18 and over) shows that among those absolutely certain to vote, the Conservative Party lead the Labour Party by 16 points.

Ipsos's July Political Monitor shows that among those absolutely certain to vote, the Conservative Party lead the Labour Party by 16 points. The Conservatives are on 40% (up from 38% last month), Labour is on 24% (up three points) and the Lib Dems on 18% (down one from 19%). This leaves 18% giving a vote for other parties; in June this figure was 22%. The previous `high' for those intending to vote for other smaller parties is likely to reflect the greater coverage such parties received during the European and local election campaigning in May and June. One in five (19%) are satisfied with the way the Government is running the country (compared to 16% last month), and three quarters are dissatisfied (75%, vs. 78% last month). Taking the net rating (the percentage satisfied minus the percentage dissatisfied) puts the Government on -56, which is a six point improvement from last month's record low.


For the third month in a row, more Labour supporters are dissatisfied (50%) than are satisfied (41%) with the Government, giving a net rating of -9.A quarter (26%) of the public are satisfied with the way Gordon Brown is doing his job as Prime Minister and two in three (68%) are dissatisfied. These are similar to last month's ratings, in which 27% were satisfied and 66% dissatisfied.


David Cameron's ratings also closely match last month's - 46% are satisfied and 37% are now dissatisfied with his performance.

Nick Clegg, for the third month running, sees improved satisfaction ratings - 44% are satisfied, and 28% dissatisfied with his performance, giving him a net satisfaction score of +16 (compared to Cameron's +9). While over a quarter (28%) still say they `don't know' whether or not Clegg is doing a good job, this compares favourably with two in five (41%) feeling this way in January this year.

Fewer think that the economic condition of the country will improve in the next twelve months than think it will get worse, unlike last month when optimists outnumbered pessimists for the first time since the turn of the millennium. One in three (34%) think the economy will improve while four in ten (40%) feel it will get worse. The Economic Optimism Index (those who think it will get better minus those who think it will get worse) is therefore -6, a 17 point drop from last month's 12 year high of +11. This drop in optimism is likely to reflect negative headlines in the past month about continuing job losses on the back of the ongoing economic slowdown.

Technical DetailsIpsos interviewed a representative sample of 1,012 adults aged 18+ across Great Britain. Interviews were conducted by telephone 17th-19th July 2009. Data are weighted to match the profile of the population.Where percentages do not sum to 100, this may be due to computer rounding, the exclusion of "don't know" categories, or multiple answers. An asterisk (*) denotes any value of less than half a per cent. Voting intention figures exclude those who say they would not vote, are undecided or refuse to name a party and in the headline figures, those who are not absolutely certain to vote.  

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