Ipsos's June Political Monitor (carried out by telephone between 19-21 June among 1,004 British adults aged 18 and over) shows that among those absolutely certain to vote, the Conservative Party lead the Labour Party by 17 points. The Conservatives are on 38% (down from 40% in our last Political Monitor), Labour is on 21% (up three points from last month) and the Lib Dems on 19% (from 18%). This leaves 22% giving a vote for other parties. This `other' category breaks down as follows:
- Scottish/Welsh Nationalist: 3%
- Greens: 5%
- UKIP: 8%
- BNP: 5%
- Other: 2%
Ipsos also tracks the public's optimism about the future of the economy on a monthly basis. For the first time since the turn of the millennium, those who think the economy will get better over the next 12 months now outnumber those who think it will get worse. The proportion of those who feel the economic condition of the country will improve in the next twelve months is 41%, while three in ten (30%) feel it will get worse. The Economic Optimism Index (those who think it will get better minus those who think it will get worse) is therefore +11, which represents the highest economic optimism in 12 years. Turning back to the country's leaders, just 16% (compared to 18% last month) are satisfied with the way the Government is running the country, and almost four fifths (78%, vs. 77% last month) are dissatisfied. Taking the net rating (the percentage satisfied minus the percentage dissatisfied) puts the Government on -62, which is the lowest ever satisfaction rating for this Labour Government. For the second month in a row, more Labour supporters are dissatisfied (51%) than are satisfied (39%) with the Government, giving a net rating of -12, which is the lowest satisfaction score among its own supporters that has been recorded for this Labour Government. A quarter (27%) are satisfied with the way Gordon Brown is doing his job as Prime Minister and three quarters (66%) are dissatisfied. This is a slight improvement compared with last month's ratings, in which 26% were satisfied and 69% dissatisfied. David Cameron's ratings have declined since last month. Fewer than half (45%, compared to 51% last month) are satisfied with the way he is doing his job as leader of the Conservative Party, and more than a third (37%) are dissatisfied, up from 35% last month. Nick Clegg's satisfaction ratings have fallen more dramatically. Two in five (39%) are satisfied with the way he is doing his job as leader of the Liberal Democrats, and 29% are dissatisfied - last month 45% were satisfied and 23% dissatisfied with his performance. However, among his own supporters, Nick Clegg is more popular than he has ever been - just 10% are dissatisfied, and 80% are satisfied, giving a net score of +70. He is now more popular among Lib Dem voters than David Cameron is among Conservative voters.
Technical Details Ipsos interviewed a representative sample of 1,004 adults aged 18+ across Great Britain. Interviews were conducted by telephone 19th-21st June 2009. Data are weighted to match the profile of the population. Where percentages do not sum to 100, this may be due to computer rounding, the exclusion of "don't know" categories, or multiple answers. An asterisk (*) denotes any value of less than half a per cent. Voting intention figures exclude those who say they would not vote, are undecided or refuse to name a party and in the headline figures, those who are not absolutely certain to vote.