Ipsos Political Monitor November 2008

Conservatives Down to 3 Point Lead Over Labour Ipsos's November Political Monitor (carried out by telephone between 14-16 November 2008 among 1,002 adults age 18 and over) shows that among those absolutely certain to vote, the Conservative Party share has dropped five points to 40% and the Labour Party share has increased seven points to 37%. Public satisfaction with Gordon Brown has improved notably from last month: while half (50%) remain dissatisfied with Gordon Brown, this figure has dropped 9 points from 59% last month and 19 points from 69% in September 2008.In addition, his satisfaction rating has risen six points to 41% in November. It seems that Brown's leadership (both nationally and internationally) during the current economic situation has served to improve his personal ratings with the public. In addition, satisfaction with the Government overall has improved, with 32% satisfied, an increase of seven points from October. Six in ten (59%) remain dissatisfied, but this figure is down from 69% last month. More people remain satisfied than dissatisfied with David Cameron, but this rating has dropped off slightly in the last month, moving from 49% satisfied last month to 45% satisfied now. More than three quarters (76%) of Conservative supporters are satisfied with Cameron (78% last month), and 16% are dissatisfied (12% last month). The Liberal Democrat vote share remains low on 12%. Over a third (34%) of the public are satisfied with the way Nick Clegg is doing his job as leader of the Liberal Democrats, and a quarter (25%) are dissatisfied. However, more than two in five (41%) still say that they don't know. It may be that that the financial crisis has diverted focus from the Liberal Democrats, which could explain their low vote share as well. While last month saw a boost in public optimism about the economy (following the announcement of the bailout), this month the figure has dropped back down to pre-bailout levels. This is likely in reaction to the fact that experts have confirmed we are now experiencing a recession, and that there are no `quick fix' solutions: the proportion of those who feel the economic condition of the country will improve in the next twelve months is at 17%, down from 24% last month. In addition, just over two-thirds (68%) think the economy will get worse, an increase from 59% last month. Ipsos's EOI, or Economic Optimism Index (those who think it will get better minus those who think it will get worse), is now at -51. Despite public pessimism about the economy, fewer people are pessimistic about their own personal finances, with most (45%) thinking their personal financial circumstances will stay the same over the next 12 months. Two in five (39%) think their circumstances will get worse, and 14% feel they will improve. Ipsos used to track this question monthly as part of our Financial Services Omnibus, and this measure is traditionally higher than the EOI measure above. Download the topline results for November Download the trend charts for November Download the tables for November

Technical NoteIpsos interviewed a representative quota sample of 1,002 adults aged 18+ across Great Britain. Interviews were conducted by telephone 14th-16th November 2008. Data are weighted to match the profile of the population. Where percentages do not sum to 100, this may be due to computer rounding, the exclusion of "don't know" categories, or multiple answers. An asterisk (*) denotes any value of less than half a per cent. Voting intention figures exclude those who say they would not vote, are undecided or refuse to name a party.