Just because the season is silly, doesn't mean the numbers are

Two rules of thumb for interpreting polls are to ask first, what is important to the public (rather than the Westminster bubble), and second, what does the trend show without cherry-picking from one individual survey? On the first, there is no doubt over the number one issue facing Britain: the economy, holding top spot in the Ipsos Issues Index every month since August 2008.  And on people’s views on the economy, we can see two clear trends:

Firstly, people are becoming much more optimistic – our Economic Optimism Index has risen for five consecutive months to its highest since January 2010 Despite that, they are no closer to deciding which of George Osborne or Ed Balls they trust the most on the issue.

So while improving optimism about the economy ought to be good news for the Conservatives, it is yet to turn into a clear political lead on the issue. We should also always remember that the election is not for another two years; while improving economic perceptions now will improve Conservative morale, it is whether those perceptions turn out to be true by the time we get to 2015 that will be key.  If the economy really does continue to improve, moreover, it might be worth keeping an eye on the second-order issues bubbling under the surface.  If the general election isn’t solely dominated by the economy, will the public place more emphasis on issues in the Conservatives’ traditional sphere of influence, or in Labour’s – which will be the ones that help them differentiate and make up their mind?

Secondly, the other focus in recent weeks has been on leadership, specifically Ed Miliband’s. Here, the trends are pointing in one direction.  In our recent poll for the Evening Standard, his satisfaction rating was his lowest ever, and he remains behind both his party and David Cameron in the ‘likeability’ stakes (it should be noted that our fieldwork took place as the media was reporting Labour’s own internal debate on this issue, which is likely to have been picked up by the public). But can we place this in context – after all, Ed Miliband has turned around his ratings before: his personal satisfaction scores ended 2012 ten points higher than he started the year. It is also true that for the public, pure likeability is not the be-all and end-all for a prospective Prime Minister.  Margaret Thatcher, for example, was often disliked more than Neil Kinnock during the 80s, and that didn’t stop her winning elections.

So more important for Ed Miliband, then, but just as much of a challenge, might be our finding that half the public say they don’t know what he stands for.  This is the same as Nick Clegg, but worse than both David Cameron and Nigel Farage. His low personal ratings won’t make getting across his vision any easier, but it’s not purely stony ground: Labour remain the most liked party (the Conservatives are the most disliked), and they have held on to their lead in voting intentions, so there should be some receptive audience out there. 

So while Ed Miliband’s personal ratings are in the same ballpark as the Conservative leaders from 1997 to 2005 sometimes experienced – William Hague, Iain Duncan Smith, Michael Howard – the party is in a much stronger position than the Conservatives were then. But no-one should be complacent; feelings towards a party make up only one point of the political triangle - and our research suggests that the other two, leaders and policies, are just as persuasive, if not more so.  So it may be this that is underlying people’s unease about the strength of the Labour lead, and why there are calls for more clarity on policies that matter to people – a clear lead on just one out of three might not be enough.