Latest on public attitudes to Brexit
New Ipsos research commissioned by social entrepreneur Hugh Davidson, MBE, shows that Britain remains split on key Brexit issues and to date neither Remainers nor Leavers show signs of changing their minds.
Eight months after the Referendum, the research, carried out with online British adults aged 18-75, finds only 4% of those who voted in the referendum would change their vote, and there was no difference in this between Remainers and Leavers. So, no change to date.
Hugh Davidson, a private individual and retired businessman [see Hugh Davidson (marketer) Wikipedia], commissioned the research to update legislators and the media on public attitudes to Parliament, Brexit, Article 50, and how best to exit the EU, concurrent with the House of Lords debate. He has no party-political affiliation and is currently conducting a global study on how to achieve both economic growth and greater equality. He comments:
“In an age of fake news, misleading sound bites, alternative ‘facts’, and personal attacks, I am a strong believer in objective evidence and reasoned discussion between people with different views. The research is a small contribution to this cause”
The research also shows that there is generally little trust in MPs or Lords. Only 27% trust Peers ‘a great deal’/’a fair amount’. MPs’ score is slightly better at 33%. When asked whose interests members put first, the vast majority of respondents said ‘their own’ or ‘their party’s’. Only 6% thought MPs put their country’s interest first and only another 9% thought they put their constituents first. For Peers, just 15% said they put their country first.
When asked whether leaving the European single market would be better or worse for the UK economy over the next 5 years, 29% said ‘better’ and ‘39%’ worse (the rest opted for ‘no difference’ or ‘don’t know’).
On this topic, there were major differences between Remainers (14% ‘better’:67% ‘worse’) and Leavers (48% ‘better’:15% ‘worse’); and by party support. Scots and graduates were especially pessimistic about the economic effect.
On protecting single market access versus controlling freedom of movement, the country was split down the middle with 41% favouring restricting freedom of movement for EU citizens to come to Britain, and 40% prioritising continued access to the single market. There were again large differences in view between Remain (19% freedom of movement:67% single market access) and Leave (almost exactly the reverse – 67%:17%). Conservative (59%:30%) and Labour 2015 voters (30%:53%) were only slightly less polarised.
When it comes to how the Lords and Parliament should vote, there appears to be no great appetite for voting down the Government or imposing extra conditions into the Government’s negotiations, although this will depend on what the rest of the terms actually are.
On the House of Lords vote on Article 50, only 24% thought either Peers should vote against the Government triggering this (12%), or impose the condition that it should negotiate to keep Britain in the single market (also 12%).
The Government has recently said that Parliament will be allowed to vote on the final position that is reached after the negotiation, expected in around 2 years’ time. Respondents were given three options. 25% said that there should be no vote in Parliament at all, 24% that Parliament should vote before negotiations begin (to tell Government what terms to negotiate), and 30% that Parliament should only vote after the negotiations are completed, to accept or reject the terms negotiated. The remaining percent said ‘Don’t Know’
Technical note
Ipsos interviewed 1071 online British adults aged 18-75 between 17-20 February 2017, with data weighted to the profile of the national population.
