London Mayor Poll For The Observer - 8-9 April 2008
Ipsos interview a representative quota sampe of 600 adults in London aged 18+ and asked those absolutely certain to vote a few questions.
Topline Results
- Ipsos interviewed a representative quota sample of 600 adults in London aged 18+.
- Interviews were conducted by telephone between 8-9 April 2008.
- Data are weighted to match the profile of the population.
- Download the data tabulations pdf, 266KB
- Download the presentation slides pdf, 36KB
Voting -- all absolutely certain to vote
Q1 In the next election for Mayor of London, the present Mayor, Ken Livingstone is standing for re-election as the Labour Party candidate. Boris Johnson is standing for the Conservatives, and Brian Paddick is standing for the Liberal Democrats, and there will be other candidates too.
In the election for Mayor, voters will have two votes, one for their first choice as Mayor and one for their second choice. If the election were held tomorrow, which candidate would be your first choice?
Q2 Which candidate are you most inclined to support?
Base: All absolutely certain to vote, 18+ Londoners (325)
| 160 | Q1/2 |
|---|---|
| 160 | % |
| Boris Johnson (Conservative) | 46 |
| Ken Livingstone (Labour) | 40 |
| Brian Paddick (Liberal Democrat) | 11 |
| Sian Berry (Green) | 2 |
| Gerard Batten (UK Independence Party) | 1 |
| Matt O'Connor (English Democrat) | * |
| Richard Barnbrook (British National Party) | 0 |
| Lindsey German (The Left List) | 0 |
| Alan Craig (Christian Choice) | 0 |
| Winston McKenzie (Independent) | 0 |
| Other | 1 |
| Undecided | 7 |
| Would not vote | * |
| Refused | 4 |
Q3 And who would be your second choice?
Q4 Which candidate are you most inclined to support?
Base: All absolutely certain to vote and giving a first choice, 18+ Londoners (283)
| 160 | Q3/4 |
|---|---|
| 160 | % |
| Boris Johnson (Conservative) | 15 |
| Ken Livingstone (Labour) | 20 |
| Brian Paddick (Liberal Democrat) | 54 |
| Sian Berry (Green) | 7 |
| Gerard Batten (UK Independence Party) | 2 |
| Matt O'Connor (English Democrat) | 0 |
| Richard Barnbrook (British National Party) | 1 |
| Lindsey German (The Left List) | 0 |
| Alan Craig (Christian Choice) | 0 |
| Winston McKenzie (Independent) | 0 |
| Other | 2 |
| Undecided | 8 |
| Would not vote | 10 |
| Refused | 2 |
*Excludes those who answered undecided, would not vote or refused at Q1/2
Combined Figures
Combined votes -- assuming Livingstone and Johnson are on second ballot. Includes first votes for Livingstone and Johnson, plus second votes from all who voted for a candidate other than Livingstone or Johnson at the first vote.
Base: All 18+ Londoners absolutely certain to vote and giving a first choice (283)
| 160 | % |
|---|---|
| Boris Johnson (Conservative) | 50 |
| Ken Livingstone (Labour) | 48 |
| Votes not transferred | 3 |
Q Combined votes -- Excluding votes not transferred
Base: All 18+ Londoners absolutely certain to vote and giving a first choice (283)
| 160 | % |
|---|---|
| Boris Johnson (Conservative) | 51 |
| Ken Livingstone (Labour) | 49 |
Voting figures based on `all voting' may be found at the end of this document.
Q5 The elections for the Mayor of London and the London Assembly will be held on the 1st May this year. How likely are you to vote in these elections, on a scale of 1 to 10, where 10 means you would be absolutely certain to vote, and 1 means that you would be absolutely certain not to vote?
Base: 600 London adults 18+
| 160 | % |
|---|---|
| 1 -- Absolutely certain NOT to vote | 8 |
| 2 | 1 |
| 3 | 1 |
| 4 | 1 |
| 5 | 11 |
| 6 | 3 |
| 7 | 7 |
| 8 | 6 |
| 9 | 6 |
| 10 -- Absolutely certain to vote | 54 |
| Don't know | 1 |
| Refused | * |
Q6 Have you definitely decided to vote for ... as your first preference, or is there a chance you may change your mind?
Base: 511 London adults 18+ naming a first choice candidate / party
| 160 | % |
|---|---|
| Definitely decided | 66 |
| May change mind | 32 |
| Don't know | 2 |
Q7 Last week there was considerable media coverage about how many women Ken Livingstone has had children with, and about Boris Johnson's extramarital affairs.
How important, if at all, would you say these sorts of details about candidates' private lives are in helping you to decide who to vote for?
Base: 600 London adults 18+
| 160 | % |
|---|---|
| Very important | 7 |
| Fairly important | 11 |
| Not very important | 20 |
| Not at all important | 59 |
| Don't know | 2 |
| 160 | |
| Total important | 18 |
| Total not important | 79 |
| Net important | -61 |
Q8 What do you think will be the outcome of the forthcoming Mayoral Election?
Base: 600 London adults 18+
| 160 | % |
|---|---|
| Ken Livingstone of the Labour Party will win | 43 |
| Boris Johnson of the Conservative Party will win | 28 |
| Brian Paddick of the Liberal Democrat Party will win | 3 |
| Other | 2 |
| Don't know | 24 |
Q9 I am now going to read out a list of six characteristics both favourable and unfavourable that have been used to describe London. I would like you to pick out the two or three that you feel best fit the London you know.
Base: 600 London adults 18+
| 160 | % |
|---|---|
| Congested | 60 |
| Dangerous | 39 |
| Modern | 37 |
| Tolerant | 35 |
| Thriving | 34 |
| Deteriorating | 29 |
| None of these | 1 |
| Don't know | 2 |
Q10 Do you expect general property prices in London to rise, fall or stay the same in the next year?
Base: 600 London adults 18+
| 160 | % |
|---|---|
| To rise | 29 |
| To fall | 36 |
| To stay the same | 28 |
| Don't know | 7 |
Q11 Two in three people in Britain think the general economic condition of the country will get worse over the next 12 months. If this does happen, how much do you expect it will affect you and your family?
Base: 600 London adults 18+
| 160 | % |
|---|---|
| A great deal | 19 |
| A fair amount | 33 |
| Not very much | 31 |
| Not at all | 13 |
| Don't know | 5 |
| 160 | |
| Great deal / Fair amount | 52 |
| Not very much / Not at all | 44 |
| Net: Great deal / Fair amount | +8 |
Voting -- all voting
Combined first choice
Q1 In the next election for Mayor of London, the present Mayor, Ken Livingstone is standing for re-election as the Labour Party candidate. Boris Johnson is standing for the Conservatives, and Brian Paddick is standing for the Liberal Democrats, and there will be other candidates too.
In the election for Mayor, voters will have two votes, one for their first choice as Mayor and one for their second choice. If the election were held tomorrow, which candidate would be your first choice?
Q2 Which candidate are you most inclined to support?
Base: All respondents, 18+ Londoners (600)
| 160 | Q1/2 |
|---|---|
| 160 | % |
| Boris Johnson (Conservative) | 42 |
| Ken Livingstone (Labour) | 42 |
| Brian Paddick (Liberal Democrat) | 12 |
| Sian Berry (Green) | 2 |
| Gerard Batten (UK Independence Party) | 1 |
| Matt O'Connor (English Democrat) | * |
| Richard Barnbrook (British National Party) | * |
| Lindsey German (The Left List) | 0 |
| Alan Craig (Christian Choice) | 0 |
| Winston McKenzie (Independent) | * |
| Other | 1 |
| Undecided | 7 |
| Would not vote | 2 |
| Refused | 5 |
Q3 And who would be your second choice?
Q4 Which candidate are you most inclined to support?
Base: All respondents giving a first choice, 18+ Londoners (511)
| 160 | Q3/4 |
|---|---|
| 160 | % |
| Boris Johnson (Conservative) | 21 |
| Ken Livingstone (Labour) | 20 |
| Brian Paddick (Liberal Democrat) | 47 |
| Sian Berry (Green) | 6 |
| Gerard Batten (UK Independence Party) | 1 |
| Matt O'Connor (English Democrat) | 0 |
| Richard Barnbrook (British National Party) | 1 |
| Lindsey German (The Left List) | * |
| Alan Craig (Christian Choice) | 0 |
| Winston McKenzie (Independent) | * |
| Other | 3 |
| Undecided | 7 |
| Would not vote | 10 |
| Refused | 2 |
*Excludes those who answered undecided, would not vote or refused at Q1/2
Q Combined votes -- assuming Livingstone and Johnson are on second ballot. Includes first votes for Livingstone and Johnson, plus second votes from all who voted for a candidate other than Livingstone or Johnson at the first vote.
Base: All 18+ Londoners voting and giving a first choice (507)
| 160 | % |
|---|---|
| Ken Livingstone (Labour) | 49 |
| Boris Johnson (Conservative) | 47 |
| Votes not transferred | 4 |
Q Combined votes -- Excluding votes not transferred
Base: All 18+ Londoners voting and giving a first choice (507)
| 160 | % |
|---|---|
| Boris Johnson (Conservative) | 49 |
| Ken Livingstone (Labour) | 51 |
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