London Mayor Poll for UNISON - 23-24 April 2008

Ipsos's latest poll on the London Mayoral election puts Ken Livingstone ahead of Boris Johnson by 52% to 48%, among those registered to vote who say they are "absolutely certain to vote", but the gap is not big enough to be statistically significant.

Taking first preference votes of those "absolutely certain to vote", Ken Livingstone receives 41% and Boris Johnson 38%, with 12% for Brian Paddick of the Liberal Democrats and 3% for Sian Berry, the Green Party candidate.

The most important issues in the election are: crime (mentioned by 61%), transport (57%), healthcare and the NHS (43%), the cost of living (35%), education and schools (34%) pollution and the environment (28%).

When asked 'Who do you regard as more trustworthy, Boris Johnson or Ken Livingstone?' Ken Livingstone was regarded as more trustworthy by 41% and Boris Johnson by 30% of Londoners.

Topline Results

• Ipsos interviewed a representative quota sample of 1,010 adults in London aged 18+.
• Interviews were conducted by telephone on 23rd and 24th April 2008.
• Data are weighted to the profile of the London population by gender, age, working status, region (Inner / Outer London), ethnic group, housing tenure, social class and car ownership.
• Where results do not sum to 100, this is due to computer rounding, multiple responses or the exclusion of don't knows or non-responses
• An asterisk (*) indicates a finding of less than 0.5%, but greater than zero
• Unless otherwise stated figures are based on all 1,010 respondents
• Voting intention figures exclude those who are undecided, would not vote or refuse to answer
• Download the data tabulations pdf, 88KB

Voting — all absolutely certain to vote

Combined Figures — Certain to vote, registered to vote and giving first choice

Q1/2/3/4 Combined votes — assuming Livingstone and Johnson are on second ballot.

Includes first votes for Livingstone and Johnson, plus second votes from all who voted for a candidate other than Livingstone or Johnson at the first vote.

Base: All 18+ Londoners absolutely certain to vote, giving a first choice and registered to vote (527)

Combined Figures — Certain to vote and giving first choice

Q1/2/3/4 Combined votes — assuming Livingstone and Johnson are on second ballot.

Includes first votes for Livingstone and Johnson, plus second votes from all who voted for a candidate other than Livingstone or Johnson at the first vote.

Base: All 18+ Londoners absolutely certain to vote and giving a first choice (587)

London Mayoral Election Voting — First Choice (Certain to Vote)

Q1 In the next election for Mayor of London, the present Mayor, Ken Livingstone, is standing for re-election as the Labour Party Candidate. Boris Johnson is standing for the Conservatives, and Brian Paddick is standing for the Liberal Democrats, and there will be other candidates too.

In the election for Mayor, voters will have two votes, one for their first choice as Mayor and one for their second choice. If the election were held tomorrow, which candidate would be your first choice?

If Undecided or Refused

Q2 Which candidate are you most inclined to support?

Base: All certain to vote (634)

London Mayoral Election Voting — Second Choice (Certain to Vote)

Q3 And who would be your second choice?

If Undecided or Refused

Q4 Which candidate are you most inclined to support?

Base: All certain to vote (634)

Q5 The election for the Mayor of London will be held on 1st May this year. How likely are you to vote in this election, on a scale of 1 to 10, where 10 means you would be absolutely certain to vote, and 1 means that you would be absolutely certain not to vote?

Base: All 18+ Londoners (1,010)

Q6 Have you definitely decided to vote for [FIRST MAYORAL CHOICE] as your first preference, or is there a chance you may change your mind?

Base: All naming a candidate for first choice (893)

Q7 Who do you regard as more trustworthy, Boris Johnson or Ken Livingstone?

Base: All 18+ Londoners (1,010)

Q Thinking about the Mayoral Elections, which two or three issues, if any, do you think will be very important in helping you to decide who to vote for?

Base: All 18+ Londoners (1,010)

Q As far as you are aware, are you registered to vote in your borough?

Base: All 18+ Londoners (1,010)

Voting — all

London Mayoral Election Voting — First Choice (All)

Q1/2/3/4 Combined votes — assuming Livingstone and Johnson are on second ballot.

Includes first votes for Livingstone and Johnson, plus second votes from all who voted for a candidate other than Livingstone or Johnson at the first vote.

Base: All 18+ Londoners giving a first choice and registered to vote (892)

Q1 In the next election for Mayor of London, the present Mayor, Ken Livingstone, is standing for re-election as the Labour Party Candidate. Boris Johnson is standing for the Conservatives, and Brian Paddick is standing for the Liberal Democrats, and there will be other candidates too.

In the election for Mayor, voters will have two votes, one for their first choice as Mayor and one for their second choice. If the election were held tomorrow, which candidate would be your first choice?

If Undecided or Refused

Q2 Which candidate are you most inclined to support?

Base: All

London Mayoral Election Voting — Second Choice (All)

Q3 And who would be your second choice?

If Undecided or Refused

Q4 Which candidate are you most inclined to support?

Base: All

Q1/2/3/4 Combined votes — assuming Livingstone and Johnson are on second ballot.

Includes first votes for Livingstone and Johnson, plus second votes from all who voted for a candidate other than Livingstone or Johnson at the first vote.

Base: All 18+ Londoners giving a first choice and registered to vote (892)