Majority do not think the Conservative government deserves to be re-elected, but public remain unsure about Labour

Few believe the Conservatives deserve to be re-elected, but less than 4 in 10 believe Labour are ready to form the next government

The author(s)

  • Keiran Pedley Public Affairs
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  • Boris Johnson’s final satisfaction rating is comparable to Theresa May’s and Margaret Thatcher’s as they left office
  • Keir Starmer’s ratings are slightly worse than average for a leader of the opposition going back to 1980

The latest Ipsos Political Monitor, taken July 21st to 27th, shows that less than a third (31%) agree that the Conservative government deserves to be re-elected, with the majority disagreeing (52%). These numbers are similar to April but slightly better than January (when 28% agreed, 56% disagreed). 

However, when asked if Labour are ready to form the next government the public are split with 37% agreeing they are (+4 pts from April) and 43% disagreeing (-3 pts). The proportion agreeing Labour is ready is one of their better scores since losing office in 2010. but is not as strong as David Cameron and Tony Blair achieved in opposition before going on to win. 

Satisfaction ratings 

Just 20% are satisfied with the way the government is running the country (-3 pts from June) and 74% are dissatisfied (+5 pts).  This is the lowest score since just before the 2019 General Election. Nearly half of Conservative supporters are dissatisfied (57%). 

24% are satisfied with the job Boris Johnson is doing as Prime Minister (-1 pt) and 69% are dissatisfied (no change). The majority (56%) of Conservatives supporters are still satisfied, though this is down from 67% last month.

Boris Johnson’s final net satisfaction rating as Prime Minister stands at -45. Theresa May’s was -44 and David Cameron’s -38. Margaret Thatcher’s was -46 and Tony Blair’s -27.

29% are satisfied with the job Keir Starmer is doing as leader of the Labour Party (-3 pts). 49% are dissatisfied (+3pts).

Keir Starmer’s net satisfaction rating stands at -20. This is slightly worse than the average for a leader of the opposition going back to 1980 (-12). However, it should be noted that most of those lose. The last two opposition leaders to win an election from opposition held net positive scores at similar periods in their term as LOTO (Blair +21, Cameron +4).

Keiran Pedley, Director of Politics at Ipsos UK, says of the findings: 

We have plenty of evidence that the public are not happy with how the Conservatives are running the country in several important areas. However, it is also true that the public are not 100% sold on Labour as an alternative either. Satisfaction with Keir Starmer is unspectacular by historic standards and the public are split on whether the Labour Party is ready for government.

Notes to Editors:

  • Ipsos interviewed a representative sample of 1,052 adults aged 18+ across Great Britain. Interviews were conducted by telephone: 21st to 27th July 2022. Data are weighted to match the profile of the population. All polls are subject to a wide range of potential sources of error.   
  • On the basis of the historical record of the polls at recent general elections, there is a 9 in 10 chance that the true value of a party’s support lies within 4 points of the estimates provided by this poll, and a 2 in 3 chance that they lie within 2 points. This is especially important to keep in mind when calculating party lead figures. 
     

The author(s)

  • Keiran Pedley Public Affairs

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