MORI Political Monitor January 2005
MORI's first election special Political Monitor, conducted exclusively for The Observer in January shows a six-point lead for the Labour Party over the Tories (38% to 32%) with the Liberal Democrats on 22% (down from 26% in December). Tony Blair is seen as the most capable Prime Minister by a margin of two to one over both his counterparts (39% to 17% each). These results project -- on a uniform swing -- to a Labour majority of between 120 and 130. The survey reveals further evidence of the popularity of the Chancellor, Gordon Brown. In a head to head with the Prime Minister, Gordon Brown is seen as a more capable Prime Minister (by 39% to 35%). Exactly half the public describe Gordon Brown as trustworthy, v 32% for Blair and 28% for Howard.
Topline Results
- MORI interviewed a representative quota sample of 1,956 adults aged 18+ at 195 sampling points across Great Britain.
- Fieldwork was conducted face-to-face on 20-24 January 2005.
- Data weighted to the national population profile
- An '*' indicates a finding of less than 0.5%, but greater than zero
- Where percentages do not add up to exactly 100% this may be due to computer rounding, the exclusion of "don't knows" or to multiple answers
Q1 How would you vote if there were a General Election tomorrow? IF UNDECIDED OR REFUSED AT Q1 Q2 Which party are you most inclined to support? Base: All 'absolutely certain to vote' (1,051)
| % | |
|---|---|
| Conservative | 32 |
| Labour | 38 |
| Liberal Democrats (Lib Dem) | 22 |
| Scottish/Welsh Nationalist | 3 |
| Green Party | 2 |
| UK Independence Party | 2 |
| Other | 2 |
| Lab lead (177%) | +6 |
| Would not vote | * |
| Undecided | 6 |
| Refused | 1 |
Q3-6 Are you satisfied or dissatisfied with the way the Government / Mr Blair / Mr Howard / Mr Kennedy are doing their job? Base: 1,020 British adults 18+
| Satisfied | Dissatisfied | Don't know | Index | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| % | % | % | 177% | |
| Government (Q3) | 32 | 58 | 10 | -26 |
| Blair (Q4) | 33 | 57 | 10 | -24 |
| Howard (Q5) | 22 | 48 | 30 | -26 |
| Kennedy (Q6) | 39 | 28 | 32 | +11 |
Q7 What would you say is the most important issue facing Britain today? (Spontaneous) Q8 What do you see as other important issues facing Britain today? (Spontaneous) Base: 1,020 British adults 18+
| Q7 | Q7/8 | |
|---|---|---|
| % | % | |
| Defence/foreign affairs/international terrorism | 18 | 34 |
| National Health Service/Hospitals | 11 | 34 |
| Race relations/immigration/immigrants | 13 | 26 |
| Crime/law & order/violence/vandalism | 10 | 26 |
| Education/schools | 5 | 24 |
| Pensions/social security | 3 | 11 |
| Economy/economic situation | 4 | 10 |
| Housing | 2 | 8 |
| Poverty/inequality | 2 | 8 |
| Taxation | 1 | 8 |
| Unemployment/factory closure/lack of industry | 3 | 7 |
| Common Market/EU/Europe/EURO/Constitution | 2 | 7 |
| Morality/individual behaviour | 2 | 6 |
| Drug abuse | 2 | 5 |
| Pollution/environment | 1 | 5 |
| Transport/public transport | * | 4 |
| Public services in general | 1 | 3 |
| Tsunami/ South East Asia | 1 | 3 |
| Local government/council tax | * | 3 |
| Countryside/rural life | 1 | 2 |
| Inflation/prices | 1 | 2 |
| Low pay/minimum wage/fair wages | * | 2 |
| Nuclear weapons/nuclear war/disarmament | * | 2 |
| Animal welfare | * | 1 |
| GM/GM (Genetically Modified) foods | * | 1 |
| Pound/exchange rate/value of pound | * | 1 |
| Privatisation | * | 1 |
| Petrol prices/fuel | 0 | 1 |
| Scottish/Welsh Assembly/Devolution Constitutional reform | * | * |
| AIDS | 0 | * |
| Foot and mouth outbreak/farming crisis | 0 | * |
| Northern Ireland | 0 | * |
| Other | 7 | 13 |
| Don't know | 7 | 6 |
* Please note the re-wording of 'Common Market / EU / Europe / EURO / Constitution' and the addition of 'Tsunami/ South East Asia'
Q9 Do you think that the general economic condition of the country will improve, stay the same, or get worse over the next 12 months? Base: 1,020 British adults 18+
| % | |
|---|---|
| Improve | 12 |
| Stay the same | 53 |
| Get worse | 31 |
| Don't know | 5 |
| MORI Economic Optimism Index [EOI] | -19 |
Q10 And how likely would you be to vote in an immediate General Election, on a scale of 1 to 10, where 10 means you would be absolutely certain to vote, and 1 means that you would be absolutely certain not to vote? Base: 1,956 British adults 18+
| % | |
|---|---|
| 10 -- absolutely certain to vote | 51 |
| 9 | 6 |
| 8 | 8 |
| 7 | 5 |
| 6 | 4 |
| 5 | 6 |
| 4 | 2 |
| 3 | 3 |
| 2 | 2 |
| 1 -- absolutely certain not to vote | 10 |
| Don't know | 2 |
| Refused | 0 |
Q11 Which one of these definitions, if any, comes closest to your political views? Base: 1,020 British adults 18+
| % | |
|---|---|
| Old Labour | 16 |
| New Labour | 19 |
| One Nation Tory | 6 |
| Thatcherite Tory | 11 |
| Liberal | 12 |
| Social Democratic | 6 |
| Nationalist | 3 |
| Other | 2 |
| None of these | 15 |
| Don't know | 9 |
| Labour | 35 |
| Tory | 17 |
| Liberal/SDP | 18 |
Q12 Who do you think would make the most capable Prime Minister -- Mr Blair, Mr Howard or Mr Kennedy? Base: 1,020 British adults 18+
| % | |
|---|---|
| Tony Blair | 39 |
| Michael Howard | 17 |
| Charles Kennedy | 17 |
| Don't know | 27 |
Q13 Who do you think would make the most capable Prime Minister, Tony Blair or Gordon Brown? Base: 1,020 British adults 18+
| Total | Labour supporters | Con supporters | Lib Dem supporters | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| % | % | % | % | |
| Tony Blair | 35 | 56 | 28 | 34 |
| Gordon Brown | 39 | 28 | 47 | 51 |
| Don't know | 25 | 16 | 24 | 15 |
Q14 And in general would you describe each of the following politicians as trustworthy or not? Base: 1,020 British adults 18+
| % | ||
|---|---|---|
| Tony Blair | Trustworthy | 32 |
| Not trustworthy | 57 | |
| Don't know | 12 | |
| Net trustworthy | -25 | |
| Michael Howard | Trustworthy | 28 |
| Not trustworthy | 47 | |
| Don't know | 26 | |
| Net trustworthy | -19 | |
| Charles Kennedy | Trustworthy | 47 |
| Not trustworthy | 29 | |
| Don't know | 24 | |
| Net trustworthy | +18 | |
| Gordon Brown | Trustworthy | 50 |
| Not trustworthy | 31 | |
| Don't know | 19 | |
| Net trustworthy | +19 | |
