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Most Britons think the worst of the cost of living crisis is still to come

Most Britons think the worst of the cost of living crisis is still to come

But the number of Britons who think the crisis has reached its peak is increasing, according to the Ipsos February 2024 Political Monitor

5 March 2024

The author(s)

Gideon Skinner Public Affairs
Keiran Pedley Public Affairs
Cameron Garrett Public Affairs
Ben Roff Public Affairs

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The latest Ipsos Political Monitor, taken 21st to 28th February 2024, explores public attitudes to the economy and cost of living ahead of the budget.

24% expect the economy to improve in the next 12 months (no change from January) and 52% expect it to get worse (+2). This makes the Ipsos net Economic Optimism Index -28. This measure was -56 in November 2022, just after Rishi Sunak took office.
58% think the worst of the cost of living crisis is still to come. Though this is down from 67% in January last year. 35% think it has already reached its peak (+8pts). Young people (77% of 18-34 year olds), people from ethnic minorities (76%), and renters (70%) are the most worried that the worst is still to come.

Ipsos Chart: Has the cost of living crisis reached its peak? (% Reached Peak) All 35% Conservative voters 70% Labour voters 27% ABC1 36% C2DE 33% 18-34 20% 35-54 35% 55+ 45% Homeowners 41% Renters 22% Public sector 28% Private sector 35% Base: 1,004 British adults 18+, 21-28 February 2024, including Conservative supporters (176), Labour supporters (327), ABC1 (635), C2DE (369), 18-34 (237), 35-54 (323), 55+ (444), Home owners (691), Renters (288).

37% think Labour have the best policies on reducing the cost of living with 16% saying the Conservatives have the best policies. This lead for Labour is little changed over the last year.
28% think they and their family would be better off under a Labour government and 14% say they would be better off under the Conservatives. 53% think it would make no difference who was in power. This has shown little change since November.
33% feel that Labour do not have the knowledge needed to run the economy properly, 43% disagree. The same score as May last year.

Gideon Skinner, Head of Political Research at Ipsos, said:

Jeremy Hunt goes into the Budget with public pessimism over the economy not quite as bad as a year ago, but still with many people (especially the young) worried that things will get worse before they get better. The economy is shaping up to be a key factor in the upcoming election, for both Conservative and Labour voters, and at the moment Labour have the advantage. The Chancellor will want optimism to start improving more rapidly after tomorrow if he’s going to retake the initiative, but his opponents have kept a pretty consistent lead on the cost of living issue for the last 18 months.

Technical Note

Ipsos interviewed a representative sample of 1,004 adults aged 18+ across Great Britain. Interviews were conducted by telephone between the 21st to 28th February 2024. Data are weighted to match the profile of the population. All polls are subject to a wide range of potential sources of error.