New Insights Into Labour Migration

40% of Polish workers want to move abroad, survey says

Nearly six million Poles, almost 40% of Poles of working age, would like to move to live and work in another European country within the next five years, according to new research by MORI conducted for PricewaterhouseCoopers.

But this migration has the potential to help alleviate growing skill shortages in Member States.

In contrast, only 12% of Hungarians and 16% of Czechs 'definitely' or 'probably' want to live and work internationally - broadly on a par with the proportion of EU citizens of working age looking to move to live and work outside their own home countries now.

The PricewaterhouseCoopers study estimates that, if no immigration restrictions were in place, between 1.6 and 2.4 million people of working age would look to move from Poland, the Czech Republic and Hungary to the European Union by 2006. Such a rate of flow is much higher than that suggested by most previous studies which have examined the implications of free movement of workers after enlargement of the European Union.

Rosemary Radcliffe, Chief Economic Adviser at PricewaterhouseCoopers, said:

"The free movement of workers is one of the more sensitive issues surrounding the negotiations on EU enlargement. Our results suggest that the potential level of migration from the East could be significant - higher than other forecasts have predicted."

Mark Ambler, who led the research team, added:

"Our results show clearly that certain groups of the population are much keener than others to move internationally to live and work. Our estimates suggest that as many as one third of the expected migrants will be under 25. They also show that those keenest to migrate tend to be either those with the most senior positions or those who are currently unemployed."

Even allowing for the considerable uncertainties associated with predicting migration, the research provides important insights into the future pattern of labour movement in Europe. As such, it has important implications for the development of Europe's labour market and for the economic development of the accession countries.

The migration of skilled workers from the accession countries has the potential to make an important contribution to alleviating emerging skill shortages in Member States. At the same time, if as many young, skilled Polish workers actually choose to move to live and work outside Poland as say they would like to do so then this could have significant adverse consequences for the development of Poland's economy.

Several factors, however, may alleviate the pressure to move countries. Most notably, perhaps, if the accession countries are able to capitalise on their recent economic growth to attract more investment from international firms then this could help to enhance the opportunities for the most skilled workers within Poland.

On the other hand, if the level of movement of unskilled or unemployed workers is as great as anticipated, then this could have a more severe negative impact on local labour market conditions in those EU Member States.

Attitudes to labour mobility within Europe vary significantly. More citizens in Poland (58%), Sweden (58%) and the Czech Republic (52%) agree strongly that it should be made easier for people in Europe to live and work in other European Union countries. In contrast, Germans (20%) and Britons (25%) are least enthusiastic, although relatively few disagree with the notion of making it easier for people to live and work in other countries.

The key findings from Poland suggest that:

• the European Union is the preferred destination for 53% of people, with Germany (25%) being the most frequently cited country, although more than one in five Poles cite Canada and the United States as countries where they would like to live and work. Of the Poles preferring to move to an EU destination, the favoured countries after Germany are Italy 12%, the UK and France 10%, Spain 9% and the Netherlands 8%;
• Poles are more motivated by a desire to improve their pay more than residents of any of the other countries surveyed, reflecting the Poland's relatively low average incomes; and
• for Poles, the biggest barriers to moving to live and work internationally are lack of information about employment opportunities, lack of language skills and the difficulty achieving the necessary work permits.

The key findings from Hungary suggest that:

• the European Union is the preferred destination for 23% of people, with Germany (12%) and Austria (8%) being the most frequently cited countries;
• 75% of Hungarians do not wish to move to live and work at all internationally;
• economic factors, namely a desire to improve their standard of living and their pay and income are the key motivations of Hungarians; and
• the most important barrier is family ties.

The key findings from the Czech Republic suggest that:

• the European Union is the preferred destination for 33% of people, with Germany (16%) being the most frequently cited country followed by Austria (11%), the UK (8%), France (7%): significantly, the 14% of Czechs cited the United States as the country in which they would most like to live and work;
• 60% of Czechs do not wish to move to live and work internationally;
• three main factors motivate Czechs to want to move to live and work in another country: a desire to improve their pay, a desire to improve their standard of living and a desire to experience life in another country; and
• Czechs see no major barriers but the most important is the need to adjust to a different culture.

The results arise from a major research project being undertaken by PricewaterhouseCoopers which is investigating what businesses across Europe will need to do if they are to manage their work forces successfully in a more integrated European economy where labour is potentially more mobile. A full report of the research project will be published later in the year.

Notes to Editor:

1. The research findings are based on an omnibus survey of over 10,000 people in ten countries across Europe - Czech Republic, France, Germany, Great Britain, Hungary, Netherlands, Poland, Spain, Sweden and Switzerland. The surveys were undertaken on behalf of PwC by MORI. The fieldwork was completed between June and August 2001. Interviews were conducted face-to-face except in the Netherlands, Sweden and Switzerland where telephone interviews were completed.
2. PricewaterhouseCoopers (www.pwcglobal.com) is the world's largest professional services organisation. Drawing on the knowledge and skills of more than 150,000 people in 150 countries, we help our clients solve complex business problems and measurably enhance their ability to build value, manage risk and improve performance in an Internet-enabled world.
3. PricewaterhouseCoopers refers to the member firms of the worldwide PricewaterhouseCoopers organisation.