The Observer / Sunday Mirror Election Research - Poll 2

Topline Results

• MORI interviewed 1,007 British adults, aged 18+, by telephone between 28th and 29th April 2005
• Data are weighted to reflect the national population profile
• An (*) indicates a finding of less than 0.5%, but greater than zero
• Where percentages do not add up to exactly 100% this may be due to computer rounding, the exclusion of "don't knows" or to multiple answers

Voting -- all absolutely certain to vote -- 63%

 

QA How do you intend to vote in the General Election on May 5th? Will you vote Conservative, Labour, Liberal Democrat or for another party? IF UNDECIDED OR REFUSED AT QA QB Which party are you most inclined to support? Base: 654 British adults

	%
Conservative	33
Labour	36
Liberal Democrats	22
Scottish/Welsh Nationalist	3
Green Party	2
UK Independence Party	2
Other	2
Lab lead (177%)	+3
Would not vote	1
Undecided	8
Refused	7

Voting -- all naming a party

QA How do you intend to vote in the General Election on May 5th? Will you vote Conservative, Labour, Liberal Democrat or for another party? IF UNDECIDED OR REFUSED AT QA QB Which party are you most inclined to support?

	%
Conservative	32
Labour	38
Liberal Democrats	22
Scottish/Welsh Nationalist	3
Green Party	2
UK Independence Party	2
Other	1
Lab lead (177%)	+6
Would not vote	9
Undecided	11
Refused	5

QC And how likely will you be to vote in the General Election, on a scale of 1 to 10, where 10 means you would be absolutely certain to vote, and 1 means that you would be absolutely certain not to vote?

	%
10 -- absolutely certain to vote	63
9	5
8	8
7	5
6	2
5	5
4	1
3	1
2	1
1 -- absolutely certain not to vote	9
Don't know	*
Refused	0

Q1 Have you definitely decided to vote for the [PARTY NAMED AT QA OR QB] party or is there a chance you may change your mind before you vote? Base: All naming a party they will vote for (754)

	%
Definitely decided	66
May change mind	34
Don't know	*

 See also Trends on this question

Q2 How important is it to you personally who wins the General Election? Would you say...

	%
Very important	42
Fairly important	34
Not very important	15
Not at all important	6
Don't know	3

Q3 Which political party do you think has the best team of leaders to deal with the country's problems?

	%
Conservative	19
Labour	34
Liberal Democrat	8
Other	3
None	16
Don't know	20

Q4 What do you think will be the outcome of the forthcoming General Election?

	%
Conservative overall majority of more than 100 seats	2
Conservative overall majority under 100 seats	3
Conservatives being the biggest party but having no overall majority	3
Labour being the biggest part but having no overall majority	14
Labour overall majority of under 100 seats	40
Labour overall majority of more than 100 seats	22
Liberal Democrat victory	1
Other	1
Don't know	14

Q5-8 Would you describe each of the following politicians as trustworthy or not?

	Would describe as trustworthy	Would not describe as trustworthy	Don't know
	%	%	%
Tony Blair	32	61	7
Michael Howard	36	52	12
Charles Kennedy	61	25	14
Gordon Brown	52	36	12

Q9 Which, if any, of the following statements comes closest to your own view about the war in Iraq?

	%
I supported the war and I support it now	30
I supported the war but do not support it now	15
I opposed the war but I support it now	2
I opposed the war and oppose it now	46
None	3
Don't know	4

Q10 If the Conservatives lose the General Election and Michael Howard steps down as party leader, which one of the following politicians I am going to read out, if any, would you like to see lead the Conservative Party?

	%
David Cameron	2
Ken Clarke	25
David Davis	7
William Hague	15
Oliver Letwin	4
Stewart Lewis	1
Other	4
None of these	17
Don't know	25

Q11 If Labour wins the coming General Election, when do you think Tony Blair should step down as Prime Minister?

	%
Immediately	37
Before the end of 2005 / in 6 month's time	7
In 2006 / in a year's time	9
In 2007 / in 2 year's time	7
In 2008 / in 3 year's time	2
In 2009 / in 4 year's time	6
In 2010 / in 5 year's time or later	6
Immediately before the next general election	9
Other	9
Don't know	8

Q12 To what extent do you agree or disagree that it is an interesting election campaign?

	%
Strongly agree	15
Tend to agree	18
Neither agree nor disagree	12
Tend to disagree	24
Strongly disagree	25
No opinion	6

Q13 How much is YOUR OWN quality of life affected by fear of crime, on a scale from 1 to 10, where 1 is no effect and 10 is a total effect on your quality of life?

	%
1	19
2	10
3	12
4	9
5	18
6	6
7	9
8	6
9	2
10	9
Don't know	*
Mean	4.52

Q14 Which of the following best describes your own view of whether Britain should adopt the new European constitution?

	%
I strongly support Britain adopting the new European constitution	9
I am generally in favour of Britain adopting the European constitution, but could be persuaded against if I thought it would be bad for Britain	20
I am generally opposed to Britain adopting the European constitution, but could be persuaded in favour of it if I thought it would be good for Britain	27
I strongly oppose Britain adopting the new European constitution	36
Don't know	8