Only one in five think Badenoch will become Prime Minister, but majority still predict the Conservatives will win again in future

New polling from Ipsos in the UK shows that only around one in five Britons (22%) expect Kemi Badenoch to become Prime Minister, against three in five saying it is unlikely (63%). This includes nearly half (48%) of 2024 Conservative voters questioning her chances, and if she were to enter Number 10, only 18% of the public as a whole, and 39% of 2024 Conservative voters, believing she would do a good job.  Fieldwork was conducted 19-22 September 2025, before the party’s conference in Manchester.

Meanwhile the public increasingly think Nigel Farage will one day be Prime Minister, with half (49%) saying this is likely, up 10-percentage points since May. One in three (34%) still say it’s unlikely, but this has dropped 14-percentage points. Although, if he were to take the top job, slightly more still think he would do a bad than good job (42% vs. 34% respectively).

This comes as nearing half (47%) now say they consider Reform UK to be the main opposition to the Labour government, which again has increased 10-percentage points since May. Only one in four (25%) identify the Conservatives as the main opposition, and opinion is even divided among 2024 Conservatives (with 50% naming the Conservatives, but 45% opting for Reform).

Given this, opinion is split on whether Kemi Badenoch should continue as Conservative party leader or stand down and let someone else take over (38% selecting both options; 59% of 2024 Conservative voters think she should continue). The verdict is more positive for Mr Farage and Liberal Democrat leader Ed Davey, with around half thinking both should continue in their roles (52%, 49% respectively; 91% of 2024 Reform UK voters think Nigel Farage should continue as leader). This is despite only 14% of Britons thinking Sir Ed will ever become Prime Minister, and only slightly more thinking he would be good in the role (23%).

Keir Starmer faces the biggest challenge, however, with half (51%) saying he should stand down and let someone else takeover, including a third (32%) of 2024 Labour voters. Almost three in five (57%) also say he’s doing a bad job as Prime Minister. 

Despite the negative mood music for Kemi Badenoch, the public are yet to write off the Conservative party. Around half (52%) still say it’s likely that the Conservatives will win a future General Election, which is only just behind the proportion saying the same about Reform (56%) and similar to the Labour party (50%). 

But no clear alternative to Badenoch?

There is also no clear viable alternative to Kemi Badenoch in the minds of Britons. When asked which members of the shadow cabinet the public have heard from in the past couple of weeks, around one in five mention James Cleverly (21%) and Robert Jenrick (20%).  But over half, 55%, either say none of them or don’t know.

Further, when asked who they would most prefer to become the next leader of the Conservative party, nearly half say either “none of them” (22%) or “don’t know” (25%). 

The contenders at the front of the pack are ex-leading Conservative figures, several of whom are no longer MPs: Boris Johnson (11%, who also leads among 2024 Conservative voters with 16%), Penny Mordaunt (7%), Rishi Sunak (6%) and Rory Stewart (6%). Mr Jenrick also polls 6% overall, but is selected by 18% of 2024 Reform voters, putting him just narrowly second to Boris Johnson among this group (who is on 20%).

There is little between Kemi Badenoch and her leadership rivals when they are put in direct head-to-heads on who would make the better leader of the Conservative party. The most popular response is that there is no difference between the two when picking  between her and Robert Jenrick (15% plumping for her vs. 14% for Jenrick) and James Cleverly (16% vs. 16%).  Kemi Badenoch is though more preferred among 2024 Conservative voters (by 33% vs 20% over Jenrick, and by 31% vs 18% over Cleverly), though Jenrick is more preferred among 2024 Reform voters (by 34% to 13% for Badenoch).

Penny Mordaunt has a slight lead among the public as a whole, with 21% opting for her over 16% for Badenoch, but with 42% still saying no difference or neither (there is also little between them in the views of 2024 Conservative and Reform voters). Robert Jenrick and James Cleverly are both on 14% when put head-to-head, with little difference among 2024 Conservatives (18% vs. 20%), but Mr Jenrick opening a lead among 2024 Reform voters (35% vs. 9%).

Gideon Skinner, Senior UK Director at Ipsos said of the findings:

Heading into her first conference as Conservative leader, these numbers show that Kemi Badenoch clearly needs to do more to establish herself as a credible alternative to the current Labour government. From a low baseline, this will be an uphill challenge but she will hope that the conference provides an opportunity to start to cut through, at a time when the public seem to be paying much more attention to Reform as the more convincing party of opposition.

Despite the Conservatives’ historically poor polling numbers, the public are yet to completely write them off in the future, and Britons don’t obviously view potential leadership challengers much more positively. It’s also the case that Keir Starmer certainly has his own problems in public opinion.  But so far it is Reform and Nigel Farage who seem to be benefiting from this more than Kemi Badenoch, while the biggest question still facing the Conservatives is how they can rebuild trust with voters who are still very critical of their legacy, so that they will listen to what they have to say in the first place.

Technical notes: 

• Ipsos interviewed a representative sample of 1,145 adults aged 16+ across Great Britain. Polling was conducted online between 19-22 September 2025.  
• Data are weighted to match the profile of the population. All polls are subject to a wide range of potential sources of error.