Optimism over the economy improves for the second month in a row - but young are still more pessimistic
Ipsos’s new Political Monitor shows public expectations over the economy continue to improve after hitting a low in July following Britain’s shock decision to leave the European Union. Figures show that 36% believe the economy will improve over the next 12 months (up 8 points) compared with 37% who believe it will get worse (down 6 points) – leaving a net Economic Optimism Index score of -1 (up 14 points). One in four (24%) believe it will stay the same. This is the highest score since December 2015.
The poll also reveals differences in economic optimism between different segments of British society. A large generational gap exists with older Britons more optimistic about Britain’s economic future than younger ones. Just under half (46%) of those aged 55+ think things will improve in the next 12 months (29% think things will get worse) compared with three in ten (29%) 18-34 year olds (42% think things will get worse). Educational attainment level also plays a role in economic expectations with 27% of those with at least a degree believing the economy will improve (39% say it will get worse) compared with those without a qualification who are split (40% say it will improve and 40% say it will get worse). In both cases, it is the groups who were more likely to vote for Brexit are more optimistic. Those who own their house outright (46%) or social renters (44%) are also more likely to say the economy will improve, than those who are either paying a mortgage (27%) or renting privately (27%).
Amongst political party supporters Conservatives are more upbeat about the economy (46% saying it will improve vs. 23% saying it will get worse) compared with Labour voters who are more pessimistic (23% say it will improve and 53% say it will get worse). Liberal Democrat supporters however are most pessimistic with 15% expecting the economy to improve and two in three (64%) expecting it to get worse. UKIP voters are more positive with 53% saying it will improve and 31% saying it will get worse.
Gideon Skinner, Head of Political Research at Ipsos, said:
“Economic optimism has improved for the second month in a row after the immediate shock of Brexit. But since June the young and old have reacted very differently – young people have become more pessimistic about the economy while older people are now more optimistic.”
Technical note
Ipsos interviewed a representative sample of 1,000 adults aged 18+ across Great Britain. Interviews were conducted by telephone 10th- 14th September 2016. Data are weighted to the profile of the population.
