Pulse Check - July 2025

One year on from the General Election

This month marks the first full year of Labour in office - but it hasn't all been smooth sailing. The past month alone has seen welfare rebellions, difficult economic news and doctor strikes, which have all cast a shadow over what should have been a celebration marked by key government announcements, such as their 10 Year Health Plan.

Meanwhile immigration remains the top issue facing the country in the eyes of the public and economic optimism has dipped again.

Public perception is bleak. Half of Britons (49%) now believe Keir Starmer has changed the country for the worse. While that’s still better than the verdict on Liz Truss in October 2022, when 70% said she had changed Britain for the worse, Starmer's rating is similar to the 47% who felt the same about Boris Johnson in October 2021.

Confidence in the country's direction is also in decline. 64% say the country is heading in the wrong direction, with just 17% feeling optimistic about the direction of travel. That leaves a net score of -47, a noticeable drop from -38 just a month ago.

Starmer’s personal popularity isn’t faring much better. His net favourability has fallen to -34 (21% favourable vs. 55% unfavourable), down from -28 in June. For context, former Labour leader Jeremy Corbyn is currently polling at a similar level, with a net favourability of -32, while Nigel Farage is the most popular at -14. Kemi Badenoch is still struggling to break through with a net score -30, but 36% are still neutral or don’t know about her.

Britons are also unimpressed with a core pillar of Labour’s plan for delivery. Only 1 in 4 (23%) are familiar with the government's five missions, half (48%) think Labour is doing badly delivering mission-led government, and ratings on the three most important missions (the NHS, economic growth and taking back the streets) have all got worse since the start of the year.

Labour still has the lead on the NHS and breaking down barriers to opportunity, but is behind Reform on crime, and in a near dead-heat with the Conservatives and Reform on growth. Meanwhile no party being preferred by more than 1 in 4 on any mission points to a fractured electorate.

With MPs heading off for summer recess, the mood within the Labour camp is far from relaxed. The party now faces a crucial question: how will it regroup and reconnect with the public? There is still time for Labour to turn this around, but if they don’t there is opportunity for their opponents to take the initiative instead.