From Record Highs to Resignation

From record highs to resignation: What Ipsos data reveals about Starmer's fall and Burnham's rise

Written by Ben Roff, Senior Research Executive, Ipsos in the UK

After sustained pressure calling for him to stand down, Keir Starmer finally resigned following Andy Burnham's resounding victory at the Makerfield by-election. Using Ipsos data, we look back at Starmer's time as Labour leader and what the future might hold for Andy Burnham.

The most popular Leader of the Opposition to the least popular Prime Minister on record

Things started positively for Keir Starmer – his first net satisfaction rating of +31 is the highest Ipsos ever recorded for a Leader of the Opposition, dating back to Margaret Thatcher. So how did Starmer go from briefly being the most popular Leader of the Opposition on record to holding the worst net satisfaction rating for a sitting Prime Minister in September and November 2025 (-66), and resigning less than two years after winning the second-biggest majority since the Second World War?

The warning signs were there at the 2024 election. His net satisfaction rating of -19 was the lowest for any Leader of the Opposition to win an election, matching Ed Miliband's when he lost in 2015. Starmer's rating significantly trailed Tony Blair (+22), Margaret Thatcher (+11), and David Cameron (+3) when they won from opposition.

Starmer benefited from facing a deeply unpopular Prime Minister and Government in 2024. Rishi Sunak had a net satisfaction rating of -55, the worst for any Prime Minister at an election. Although Starmer was not popular, his opponent was even more unpopular. Since the election, Starmer has recorded the four worst net satisfaction ratings since Ipsos began collecting this data. These include -66 in September and November 2025, -62 in January 2026, and -60 in his most recent rating in May.

Alongside failing personal ratings, during Starmer’s time as Prime Minister, Labour fell to their joint-lowest vote share on record with Ipsos (18% in November 2025). Sustained pressure on Starmer finally culminated in his resignation – something that 55% of Britons thought he should do just before he formally announced it.

Where does Burnham's popularity come from?

It appears inevitable that Andy Burnham will become the next Prime Minister – something we suggested looked increasingly likely in our last monthly Pulse Check. But where does Burnham's popularity come from?

A solid support base in the North underpins Burnham’s appeal, particularly in the North West. Recent analysis found that 45% of adults in the North West view Burnham favourably – 21 points higher than for the Labour Party and 24 points higher than for Starmer. Burnham’s popularity and brand proved to crucial in his victory at the Makerfield by-election. Labour will hope Burnham's presence helps them regain support in this key region, rather than negative perceptions of Labour dragging Burnham down.

Burnham's wider appeal stems from strong performance on several key leadership characteristics: having a lot of personality, being in touch with ordinary people, being likeable, and being a strong leader. 43% also think it is clear what he stands for, higher than for Keir Starmer and other senior Labour figures. However, questions remain over his ability to handle a crisis or get the big decisions right.
Some warning signs have already emerged for Burnham. In our June Political Pulse, his net favourability rating fell to -7, down from +8 in May. The question now is whether he can harness his support base or whether the realities of government will erode it.

What next?

Whilst Burnham may represent a vibe shift for the Labour Party, the key issues that hampered Starmer remain. Immigration, the economy, and cost of living have dominated Ipsos' Issues Index throughout 2026. Pessimism towards the economy reached a record high in April 2026 and this month 69% of Britons said they expect the economy to get worse over the next 12 months.

The public doubt whether a new Prime Minister can deliver on these challenges. 45% think a change of Prime Minister will make no difference to the quality of public services and 52% think it will make no difference to their life personally.

Burnham will need to find a way to address these challenges and to be seen to be making a positive impact, or risk becoming the latest Labour leader to fall in the polls. Starmer's journey from record highs to resignation offers a cautionary tale for Burnham.