Seven Lessons from the 2015 Seven Leaders' Debate

For the first ever seven-way leaders’ debate, and the first debate of the 2015 campaign, the Ipsos “worm” returned from its last appearance in 2010.

We recruited an audience of 50 politically balanced undecided voters from England, Wales and Scotland who watched the debate from the BBC’s studios in Salford. Their reactions to the debate – positive or negative – were translated to an on-screen trace – or “worm” – that told us how positive or negative the audience were to what they saw unfolding on-screen.

• The Worm Explained

The immediate lessons are:

1. Talking about protecting the NHS was universally popular, no matter who was doing the talking. Whenever a leader vowed to defend free-at-the-point-of-use healthcare, the worm jumped up. Guarding against privatisation was especially popular, for example as Natalie Bennett found, while Nigel Farage unearthed an unexpectedly popular policy critiquing hospital car parking charges. David Cameron’s perspective on the NHS – particularly when relating his personal family experience with the service – was also warmly received, and both he and Nigel Farage got some of their highest scores when endorsing the principles of a well funded free for all NHS.
2. The economy is another winner, especially for David Cameron. As we know from our monthly Issues Index, the economy is typically among the most important issues the public say face the country. And so it proved during the debate, with the worm moving in a positive direction whenever the leaders focussed on creating jobs. Ed Miliband struggled most to gain traction when discussing the economy, perhaps reflecting how some voters still closely associate him with the perceived economic failings of the last Labour government, and he was attacked for this by the other leaders, but even then some individual policies of his did cut through, particularly on zero hour contracts.
3. Education proved popular. The worm reacted positively to any discussion of creating opportunity for younger Britons through the creation of apprenticeships. Nicola Sturgeon did really well when she argued in favour of free education for the country’s young people, while tuition fees still prove a drag for Nick Clegg, despite his attempts to confront the issue head-on. Overall Nicola Sturgeon got the highest sustained ratings both with our audience and in our Twitter analysis on this issue.
4. Talking about values and principles also worked well . Natalie Bennett of the Greens got some of her best ratings of the night when she talked about fairness in her opening remarks.
5. Europe and the EU was the biggest non-starter of the night, with little engagement on the discussion about this issue. Similarly no one leader managed to make a clear breakthrough on immigration, even Nigel Farage. Immigration was in fact one of Ed Miliband’s stronger moments of the night, with the worm remaining relatively high during his response to an audience member’s question as he talked about his plans to deal with it.
6. Don’t go negative. As in 2010 the worm headed south whenever the leaders started squabbling and talking over one another. Nicola Sturgeon’s intervention against “the old boys’ network” of Westminster was well received when the arguing between the Westminster leaders threatened to get out of hand.
7. Be positive: all the leaders tended to see their ratings rise when they talked about the positive things they wanted to achieve.

Ultimately, there were pros and cons throughout the night for all party leaders. Ed Miliband’s future-focused opening statement was well-received, but he failed to sustain approval overall , and David Cameron didn’t win, but never expected to.

The public did appreciate the chance to hear from a wider range of political leaders than usual. Our analysis of social media showed that the three female leaders – who have all had much less coverage than the men before the debate - overall got a more positive response. It is particularly interesting given that our analysis shows 89% of tweets were about personalities rather than policies.

We need to wait and see how the public as a whole absorb what they have seen reported from the debates to know if there’s been any impact on the state of the parties. Given that no clear winner emerged from the instant reaction polls, we shouldn’t expect a 2010-style bubble anytime soon: if there is one it will be for the SNP in Scotland.

• 2010 Leaders' Debates: The Verdict on the Worm (PDF)

Ben Page Chief Executive, Ipsos Paul Carroll Associate Director, Ipsos

• For more information on our work with Demos, CASM and the University of Sussex, please see the Wisdom of the Crowd