SNP Conference: Ipsos Scotland Briefing Pack
As the SNP gathers for its first conference s a majority government, Ipsos looks at the rise in support for the party in recent times and considers key challenges for the future
In May the SNP won a historic second term at Holyrood, the first as a majority administration. Our poll in February 2011 identified that the mood of the public was swinging behind the SNP, supported by having popular policies, a charismatic leader and a clear message. The results from May 6th have shifted the political agenda in Scotland and given the SNP a clear mandate to carry out their programme.
Our recent polling data shows that the SNP is the most popular party among all parts of Scottish society, from older people in rural Scotland to younger voters in our cities. And support for the party has increased among all groups in the last 18 months. In addition the First Minister enjoys very high satisfaction rating among Scots, again derived from all sections of society. His current satisfaction rating of 62% far outweighs ratings for the main UK party leaders and include significant proportions of those who vote for other parties.
One of the key issues at conference will be the referendum on independence, promised for some time during the second half of the current parliamentary session. While our data shows a growing support for full independence, the majority of Scots still favour a 'devolution max.' outcome, backing full tax-raising powers for the Scottish Parliament but falling short of full independence. So, the SNP still has to convince more voters to their position if they are going to win the referendum.
Mark Diffley, Research Director at Ipsos said:
"There is no doubt that there will be a buoyant mood at the conference this year. The SNP has a clear mandate to implement its programme for government and, with the other parties weakened and in various stages of internal renewal, the SNP is clearly the dominant force in Scottish politics. "The key challenge ahead for the party is to win over unconvinced voters to their vision of an independent Scotland. Our polls suggest there is still work to be done in that regard but there is a long time to go before the referendum is due to be held."
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