State of the Nation 2014

For the third year, Ipsos has examined the views of Britons about their country for think-tank British Future. Key findings from the survey, among 2,244 online Britons aged 16-75, include:

Looking ahead to 2014

• Half of Britons (50%) are optimistic about 2014 for themselves and their family, compared with 20% who are pessimistic. The public is also on balance optimistic about 2014 for their local area (by 36% to 29% pessimistic), but less so about the year ahead for Britain (29% optimistic, 39% pessimistic), or for Europe (by 14% to 42%).
• People are though more optimistic about the economy than they have been in previous years, with 29% feeling positive about Britain’s economic prospects, up ten points over the year. They are still outweighed by pessimists at 40%, although pessimism has also fallen by ten points since last year
• People think the most important 2014 events to them personally will be the Budget (45%), the football World Cup (23%), and the Scottish independence referendum and Romanians and Bulgarians being given the right to work in the UK (both 22%). For people living in Scotland, the most important by far is the referendum at 72%, followed by the Glasgow Commonwealth Games at 38%.
• The events that will make most difference to how people feel about Britain are again the Budget (31%), Romanians and Bulgarians having the right to work in the UK (29%), and the Scottish referendum (25% - also higher in Scotland at 62%).

Scottish independence

• One in five (20%) across Great Britain agree that Scotland should be an independent country, while over two in five (44%) disagree. Regardless of their personal views, around half (48%) think Scotland will vote to remain part of the UK, while 28% think the vote will be in favour of independence.
• If Scotland does leave the UK, half (47%) think it will make the UK weaker compared with just 8% who say it will be stronger, and 35% who think it will make no difference. Britons also think it will make Scotland weaker (by 59% to 17% stronger), and think it would make England weaker too by 33% to 16% (though 42% say it will make no difference).

Europe

• When asked about Britain’s long-term policy in relation to the European Union, around two in five (38%) think it should be to stay in the EU but try to reduce its powers, while 28% say they would like to leave the European Union completely. Eight per cent say they would like to leave things as they are, 6% stay in the EU and try to increase its powers, and just 3% work for the formation of a single European government.
• Looking forward to the European parliamentary elections, those who said they would support the Conservatives and Labour are most likely to say they would do so because they think those parties have the best policies for running Britain (65% and 41% respectively, while 32% of those choosing Labour say it is to send a message they are unhappy with the way Britain is being run). Just over half (56%) of those who say they would vote UKIP in the European elections say it is mainly to send a message to other parties that they are unhappy with way Britain is being run, while a quarter (27%) say it is because the party has the best policies on Europe. The main reason for those who say they would vote Liberal Democrat is split between those who say it is because they think the party has the best policies on Europe (32%), and those who say it is the party with the best policies for running Britain (28%).

The World Cup

• Few Britons think England will get far in the 2014 Brazil World Cup. A quarter (27%), think England will be knocked out in the first round, and another quarter (24%) think they will be knocked out in the second round. Fifteen per cent think the team will make it to the quarter finals but no further, while one in twenty-five (4%) think England will be knocked out in the semi-finals. Three per cent think England will reach the final, including 2% who think the team will win it. A quarter (26%) don’t know.
• Half of Britons (48%, and 53% in England) say they will support England in the World Cup, 5% another team, and 3% whoever is playing against England. Eight per cent will watch it as a neutral, and a third (32%) won’t be watching or supporting anyone.
• If they saw an England flag flying in someone’s home, car, shop or pub, just over half of those in England say they would feel it is a healthy expression of English pride (57% if it was while England were playing in the World Cup, 53% if on a normal day of the year). Eight per cent would find it a worrying expression of English nationalism if they saw it during the World Cup, 11% if they saw the flag on a normal day. Just over a quarter (28%) would feel neither of these on any occasion.

Downloads

• Download the computer tables (PDF)

Technical note

Ipsos interviewed 2,244 British online adults aged 16-75 between 6-11 December 2013. Interviews were conducted on Ipsos’ online panel. Data are weighted to the profile of the population.