Three quarters of Britons describe economy as poor, 7 in 10 expect inflation to rise over the next year

A new Ipsos poll reveals that the British public continues to have a pessimistic outlook on the economy as concerns over the cost of living persist. The survey, conducted online among 1,092 British adults aged 18-75 between November 22nd and 25th, 2024, paints a stark picture of public sentiment of both personal finances and the broader economic landscape.

Gloomy economic outlook

• Three quarters (75%) of Britons describe the current state of the British economy as "poor", compared to just 22% who view it as "good."  This has steadily worsened since August when 69% thought the economy was in a poor state.  
• 87% of Britons are concerned about the impact of the cost of living on the country as a whole. This is followed by 74% who are concerned about the impact on themselves personally, and 71% who are concerned about people in the area that they live.  This suggests that worry about the cost of living remains widespread (especially among under 55s and those on low incomes), although the intensity of concern has dropped since April 2023.   
  •    Looking ahead to the next year, 71% of Britons expect the rate of inflation to rise, and 63% anticipate an increase in the taxes they pay. These figures represent an increase in expectations that inflation will rise since the end of October 2024 (+8ppts), and an even bigger increase since April this year (+31).  Meanwhile expectations that taxes will go up have decreased since end-October (-6) but are also still higher than this April (+17).

Concern about personal financial circumstances

• When asked about their own personal circumstances, Britons anticipate increases in various household expenses over the next six months. Utilities top the list, with over four in five (83%) expecting price hikes. 
• Other areas of concern include the cost of food shopping (79%), other household shopping (78%), socialising (65%), motoring fuel costs (59%), subscriptions (52%), and mortgage/rent (33%). 
• Compared to the last time similar polling was conducted in late October/early November 2024, expectations for increases in utilities and food/other shopping are little changed, but all are higher than in April.  Expectations for increases in other categories have generally decreased since end-October, to similar levels as April.
• Overall, 42% expect their disposable income to decline over the next year (especially women and those aged 55-75), and just 25% for it to improve.  The overall balance of opinion is little changed since end-October/early November but is worse than April this year (when 33% anticipated a fall in their disposable income) and is similar to the picture recorded in November 2023.

Government performance

• Nearly half (48%) of Britons believe the current Labour government, led by Keir Starmer, is doing a bad job at managing the rising cost of living, compared to 19% who think they are doing a good job. This is compared to 55% who said that Rishi Sunak’s Conservative government was doing a poor job in October 2023 (17% good). 
• However, despite concerns about the cost of living, the Labour party continues to have a slight lead as the most trusted party to manage the British economy (31%), compared to the Conservative party (22%).

Gideon Skinner, Senior Director of UK Politics at Ipsos said:

The cost of living was a real problem for the last Conservative government – even when the rate of inflation was coming down the impact on prices that people were still facing was a key factor in many voters’ decisions.  It is now shaping up to be a challenge for the Labour government too.  Expectations that inflation will rise again are much more widespread than they were earlier this year, with the public particularly concerned about the cost of core household bills like utilities and food shopping.  Under 55s and those on low incomes are particularly concerned about the short-term personal impact of the cost of living, though older people are generally more pessimistic for the prospects of further rises in inflation and falls in their disposable income next year.
Politically, the economy is rising back up the agenda, and the Budget did not leave many feeling more reassured about their personal financial circumstances, with expectations that people will be paying more in tax higher now than before the election. Labour still retains a slight edge over the Conservatives as most trusted on the economy, but only 5 months since the election half think they are doing a bad job on the cost of living.  Labour needs to demonstrate that they can deliver real improvements that people experience in their daily lives, tying together both the standard of living and the state of public services, if they are to break out of the public’s pessimistic mood.

Technical note

• Ipsos interviewed a representative sample of 1,092 online British adults aged 18-75. Interviews were conducted between the 22nd-25th November 2024. 
• Data are weighted to match the profile of the population. All polls are subject to a wide range of potential sources of error.