The latest Ipsos Political Pulse, conducted between 8-12 May 2026 among 2,191 British adults in conjunction with ITV/Peston, reveals a challenging landscape for the current government, with low favourability for Prime Minister Keir Starmer and a significant shift in public expectations regarding Reform UK leader Nigel Farage.
QV1 How would you vote if there were a General Election tomorrow?
(If undecided or refused at Q1)
QV2 Which party are you most inclined to support?
Base: 1,011
Public Opinion is like an 800lb gorilla. It sleeps a lot and much of the rest of the time sits happily chewing on leaves. However, if you poke it with a stick, it gets angry. Public Opinion is pretty irritated at the moment.
MORI's poll for the News of the World published yesterday and conducted on Thursday and Friday puts the Conservatives ahead of Labour, the first poll (by any company) to do so since sterling crashed out of the Exchange Rate Mechanism eight years ago.
Over the last three years, the Liberal Democrats - like the Conservatives - have been faced with the challenge of adapting to life under a new Government. But the two parties have had to respond in very different ways.
MORI's monthly poll for The Times published last week received a lot of attention and secondary reporting, mostly concentrating on the four-point drop in the Conservative voting intention share, to its lowest level since April. But the finding that may be by far the most politically significant was much less widely reported. Over the last four months there has been what may amount to a sea-change in the attitudes of Labour supporters to voting. One reading of the figures would suggest it may presage the difference between significant Tory gains that may secure William Hague's position to fight a second election, and another Labour landslide.
Across the country as I write, schoolchildren are receiving the examination results that assess their performance over the last couple of years in each of the subjects. (Well, except in Scotland, but that is a different story.) It seems an appropriate point at which to draw up a similar report card for the government. In which policy areas does the public feel it has passed, and in which has it failed? Or rather, since "value added" seems to be the preferred benchmark these days, in which policy areas has it improved its standing since it was elected, and in which has it lost out? And, for those issues where the Opposition has scored hits, has the result merely been to damage Labour credibility or also to convince the electorate that the Conservatives (or, indeed, Liberal Democrats) might do a better job?
For much of the time, far more attention is paid to attracting the support of young voters, especially first-time voters, than is paid to attracting the votes of those who have retired. There is a superficial attraction to this: after all, young voters are generally less strongly attached to their party allegiances - if, indeed, they have any at all - and ought to be easier to swing. If their loyalties can be captured at a young age, perhaps they will subsequently offer their party a lifetime of voting service.
