Politics

Professor Robert Mackenzie was once quoted as saying that he enjoyed election nights in the same way other people enjoyed the Cup Final. New research for the June-July 2000 edition of British Public Opinion newsletter suggests that there is more to this remark than meets the eye.

Key Findings and Implications

Poll on satisfaction with Labour government: I am going to read out a list of public figures and will ask you if you are satisfied or dissatisfied with the way
they are doing their job. If you have not heard of them, please say so...Gordon Brown, Tony Blair etc.

Two leaked memos, one by Tony Blair and one by Labour's Political Consultant and pollster Philip Gould, have stirred up the news agenda this week, but beyond the embarrassment of the leaks themselves it is hard to see what much of the fuss is about. They tell us little we didn't know or guess already.

This week's U-turn by the Conservatives on tax has at last opened up a clear policy gap between the parties on one of the central issues in any election: the Tories are now committed to reducing the tax burden, even if this means cuts in public spending, while Labour will pursue its public spending plans, even if this means increasing taxes. This, of course, now frees the Tories for an all-out attack on tax increases under Labour without being scuppered by the reply that the figures in their own alternative do not add up.

If Tony Blair wants to win endorsement in a referendum for taking Britain into the single European Currency, he is going to have to change a lot of people's minds. It is still possible, but attitudes against the Euro are hardening and the hurdle is becoming steadily higher. Three recent MORI surveys (for The Times, the News of the World and Schroder Salomon Smith Barney) have explored the scale of the task facing him, and some of the factors that will work for and against him.

BT eGovernment Report

This month's sharp drop in the government's and Tony Blair's own approval ratings [June's Times poll] restores the political scene in Britain to what we generally assume to be its normal state, after more than three years when it seemed as if the laws of gravity had been suspended. For most of the half-century in which opinion polls have been measuring the state of the parties and ratings of the governments and their leaders, it has been a constant that governments are unpopular; for the first time, Mr Blair's ratings are beginning to be comparable to those of his predecessors.