Trust In Official Statistics

MORI's study for the Statistics Commission shows that key opinion formers believe the quality of UK official statistics is up with the best in the world. Much of the criticism of official statistics is seen as unwarranted -- a result of the blame culture that exists in today's political climate, and the lack of trust in government generally.

However, opinion formers also believe there is room for improvement. The lack of trust in official statistics is seen to have been driven by a number of inter-connecting factors, including the perceived 'politicisation' of data. The emphasis on performance indicators, targets and evidence based policy has increased the amount of data available and has placed statistics in the position where they are frequently required to do more than they are capable of. The presentation of data also has a strong influence; prior Ministerial access is seen to lead to 'polished' and selective presentation of data. When set against a wider backdrop of perceived 'spin', this undermines the credibility of official statistics.

Other issues, such as revisions to data, further diminish confidence. While many understand the need for this, they do not feel that the reasons are always communicated clearly. Furthermore, errors in production impact negatively on perceptions when they do occur. While no one expects the statistical service to be infallible, there are questions as to whether it responds to criticisms appropriately, with some opinion formers suggesting it is too defensive.

MORI found opinion formers have several suggestions for improvement. Many believe the key to improving trust in official statistics lies in securing greater independence for the Government's statistical service. This would allow greater autonomy for it to collect relevant and useful statistics and ensure it would be seen as being free from pressure from Ministers. Furthermore, the establishment of a regulatory body to control quality, issue guidelines on how official statistics should be used, and to act as a forum to which queries and complaints could be raised, is also seen as a potential step forward here.

Improving education and explanation are also seen as important if public trust is to increase. A common view is that it is not the data per se that are questionable, but rather the interpretation made by people other than the statisticians. Consequently, there is a feeling that the statistical service should take a more proactive role in providing clear explanations about statistics. Simplicity is key here -- it is thought that this would provide less scope for the media to distort the information available. Finally, many respondents make the point that there is a real need for improved public numeracy. While this is recognised as being a long-term measure, it is felt to be crucial if the public is to fully comprehend the importance of official statistics.

• Statistics Commission -- Reports 2005
• Statistics Commission Press Release -- Opinion-Formers' Perceptions Of Official Statistics

Technical details

MORI conducted 36 face-to-face in-depth interviews with opinion formers in the UK between October 4 and December 16 2004. Each interview lasted around an hour in length.