UK General Public Still Opposed to EMU, But Hostility to EMU Well Down From Last Year

Today's poll among Conservative party members seems certain to show a sizeable anti-EMU majority. Our latest MORI poll suggests that overall public opinion also on balance is still against early EMU entry, but that opposition to EMU is well down from a year ago, and has diminished markedly among Conservative voters.

Our regular polling, which is carried out every two months, covers two questions:If There Were a Referendum Now on Whether Britain Should Be Part of A Single European Currency, How Would You Vote?" On this basis, the balance of opinion against EMU rose to 19% in our latest poll, from 17% two months ago. However, the previous poll showed the lowest degree of hostility to EMU since MORI began asking this question at the start of the 1990s. The latest figures compare to a balance of 42% against in late 1996 and 27% against in October 1997 (just before the Government's statement in favour of the principle of EMU entry). The latest figures match January's as the second lowest degree of hostility to EMU since polling on this question began. Our other question is:If the Government Were to Strongly Urge That Britain Should Be Part of a Single European Currency, How Would You Vote?"On this question, the balance of opinion against EMU stayed at 7% in September, matching July's figure as the lowest hostility since MORI started asking this question in late 1997, and versus March's balance of 15%.

The split shows that the share of don't knows has gone up to 20% on the first question and 18% on the second: both are the highest since polling on the two questions started. Looking back over the last year, it appears that the pro-EMU vote has been roughly constant, while there has been a net shift from the anti-EMU group to the don't knows. It is possible that the heightened political debate surrounding the Conservatives' poll, the launch of EMU itself, plus the improving economic performance of most Euro area countries, are causing some people to question their previously held hostility to EMU.

As in previous months, Labour and Liberal voters are fairly evenly split. Both Labour and Liberal voters show a balance of 9% against on the first question, while Labour voters have a balance of 7% in favour of EMU on the second question and Liberals are 4% in favour. The sizeable gaps between the balances to the two questions (Labour voters go from 9% against to 7% in favour, Liberals from 9% against to 4% in favour) shows that government support for EMU would carry a big weight with these groups.

Conservative voters remain hostile to EMU, but the degree of hostility has fallen sharply: the balance of opinion against EMU on the first question fell to 44% from 50% in July, and to 39% from 41% on the second question. The Conservatives' internal poll has confirmed that party members are strongly anti-EMU, but opposition to EMU has fallen sharply among Conservative voters as a whole.

The split also shows a clear divide across social class (a proxy for income) and newspaper readership, with a pro-EMU majority on both questions among the high-income AB social group and those who read the quality press (defined as the daily broadsheets, namely the Daily Telegraph, The Financial Times, The Guardian, The Independent and The Times) rather than the tabloids. The readership of the Sun remains the most anti-EMU readership of any major daily newspaper, with a balance of 45% against on the first question and 35% against on the second.

These results highlight several tensions in the current political debate. First, Conservative voters overall back William Hague's call to oppose near term EMU entry, but their hostility to EMU has fallen sharply over the past two months. If this continues, Mr Hague's anti-EMU position will look more isolated. Moreover, a majority of non-Conservative voters would favour EMU entry if the government strongly back it (question 2). The challenge for the Conservatives is to aim to extend their political support into that wider group, rather than just consolidate their own core vote. For Labour, the risks of their pro-EMU stance are evident in the strong hostility to EMU among tabloid readers who, overall, are strongly pro-Labour. For example, 50% of Sun readers would vote Labour while just 18% would vote Conservative. Labour's challenge will be to try and keep these voters while also aiming to gradually lead the country in a pro-EMU direction.Note: Latest survey was carried out between 24 -30 September 1998. Sample size 1,942 people.

Figure 1. UK -- Question 1. If There Were a Referendum Now on Whether Britain Should Be Part of A Single European Currency, How Would You Vote? Balance of Opinion, Nov 91-Sep 98

Note: The chart shows the percentage of people that would vote "Yes" less the percentage that would vote No.

Figure 2. UK -- Question 1. If There Were a Referendum Now on Whether Britain Should Be Part of A Single European Currency, How Would You Vote? Oct 97-Sep 98

Note: Sample sizes are for September 1998, but are similar for earlier results. Numbers may not sum because of rounding.

Figure 3. UK -- Question 2: If the Government Were to Strongly Urge That Britain Should Be Part of a Single European Currency, How Would You Vote? Nov 97-Sep 98