The war continues

This morning's MORI poll in The Times extinguishes any lingering doubt that support for the American and British military action in Afghanistan might be fading. As the previous wave of published polls (by various companies) was conducted only a couple of days after the bombing began, it might have been suggested that the news stories of civilian casualties and "collateral damage" which have proliferated since would shake public backing for the action ? indeed, many commentators have suggested that opponents of the airstrikes have been "winning the propaganda war". It is now plain that this is not the case.

Responses to the most basic of the questions, support for or opposition to action against Afghanistan, has barely moved since 9 October ? no rise at all in opposition, and only a two-point fall in support, which is not statistically significant.

Q The United States and Britain launched military strikes against Afghanistan in response to the terrorist attacks on 11th September. Do you support or oppose taking military action against Afghanistan?

160	9 Oct %	18-22 Oct %
Support	69	67
Oppose	23	23
Don't know	8	10

There has been slightly more change in attitudes to President Bush and to Mr Blair, but the overall political picture cannot be said to have changed.

Q Do you approve or disapprove of the way George W. Bush is handling the American response to the terrorist attacks on 11th September?

160	14 Sep %	21 Sep %	20-25 Sep %	9 Oct %	18-22 Oct %
Approve	72	68	63	70	64
Disapprove	10	13	24	19	27
Don't know	18	19	12	11	9

*Q wording on 14 September: "... this week's terrorist attacks?"

Q Do you approve or disapprove of the way Tony Blair is handling the British response to the terrorist attacks on 11th September?

160	14 Sep %	21 Sep %	20-25 Sep %	9 Oct %	18-22 Oct %
Approve	83	76	72	72	68
Disapprove	9	14	19	21	25
Don't know	8	10	9	7	7

Source: MORI/News of the World/The Times/Tonight with Trevor McDonald

Although there has been a significant fall in satisfaction ratings with the two leaders, especially with President Bush, since our last poll earlier in the month, there remains a very clear majority approving of their handling of the situation, with around two-thirds saying they approve and only a quarter disapproving.

We also asked, for the first time, whether the public approved or disapproved of the way the new Conservative leader, Iain Duncan Smith, was handling his response to the terrorist attacks. Although, perhaps predictably, many had no opinion ? 45% said they didn't know ? of those who had an opinion the vast majority approve, by 45% to 10%. (In proportional terms, these are better figures even than Mr Blair's.)

Similarly, there has been a fall, but only a slight one, in support for British troops being involved in action in Afghanistan: two-thirds of the public are still in favour, though 28% are opposed.

Q (Sep) And if the United States were to take military action against those responsible for the attacks, would you support or oppose British troops being involved in this action? Q (Oct) Now that the US has taken military action, do you support or oppose British troops being involved in this action?

160	14 Sep %	21 Sep %	9 Oct %	18-22 Oct %
Support	74	73	72	66
Oppose	20	20	22	28
Don't know	6	7	6	6

Source: MORI/News of the World/Tonight with Trevor McDonald/The Times

As before, opposition is higher among women than among men, but even so a majority of women still favour British troops being involved (57% of women, with 35% opposed, compared to 74% of men in favour, and 22% opposed.)

One interesting sidelight on attitudes to the war can be found in the regular monthly questions on the most important issues facing the country. This pair of questions (the first asking for the single most important issue, the second following up by asking about other important issues) is unprompted ? we don't show respondents a list of possible answers, but the interviewer classifies the answers into one of around thirty categories or, if it fits none of the categories, codes the answer as "other". In both September and October, as might be expected, "defence/foreign affairs/international terrorism" was much the most frequently offered response ? given by 60% of the sample last month and 57% this month as one of the most important issues. In August, before the attacks on New York and Washington, just 2% had named the corresponding category. Because the issues question measures "top-of-the-mind" concerns and is essentially a "zero sum game" ? if respondents suddenly become more worried about one thing, they tend to be less likely to remember all the other concerns that might otherwise be on their list ? we expect that when one response undergoes a sudden month-on-month increase in this way, scores for the other leading issues will correspondingly fall off. This was indeed the case in September ? for issues such as the NHS, education, law & order and especially Europe, the September scores were lower than those in August.

Q What would you say is the most important issue facing Britain today? Q What do you see as other important isues facing Britain today?

(Combined answers)	Jun %	Jul %	Aug %	Sep %	Oct %
Defence/foreign affairs	2	2	2	60	57
NHS	58	52	54	43	49
Education/schools	44	34	35	30	31
Immigration/Race relations	14	17	23	27	17
Law and order	29	32	22	15	14
Economy/economic situation	10	12	13	15	12
Unemployment	10	11	13	11	12
Transport/Public transport	11	11	9	5	8
Common Market/EU	24	20	22	9	7
Pensions/social security	11	10	8	7	7
Poverty/Inequality	6	6	5	4	5
Housing	6	6	6	4	4
Morality/individual behaviour	4	4	4	2	4
Drug abuse	9	5	4	4	3
Foot & Mouth outbreak	7	4	7	3	3
Taxation	4	5	5	3	2
Pollution/environment	6	8	4	3	2
Northern Ireland	1	1	1	1	2
Petrol prices/fuel	4	3	3	2	*

(Others below 5% omitted) Source: MORI/The Times

But an exception was "race relations/immigration", which rose from 23% in August to 27% in September. It seems very likely that this was because many respondents were linking the two issues in their minds, feeling that the September 11 attacks might sour race relations in Britain, or perhaps even expressing fears that there might be a terrorist threat from British Muslims. The most notable figure of the October poll was that concern about race relations and immigration fell back into line, named only by 17%. It seems that over the past month the public has become less likely to link the terrorist issue with the question of race in Britain, which should be a generally reassuring conclusion.