What a Difference a Year Makes

This month has seen Ipsos's Economic Optimism Index reach record levels, with 53% of Britons now expecting to see an improvement in the economy over the next 12 months.

This month has seen Ipsos’s Economic Optimism Index reach record levels, with 53% of Britons now expecting to see an improvement in the economy over the next 12 months.

This turnaround in economic confidence is underlined by the latest findings from the Ipsos Economic Pulse – a monthly tracker of the global mood, running in 25 countries.

In April 2013, just 13% of the British public said the economy was in “good shape”:

 

Over the last 12 months, the proportion giving the British economy a positive rating has risen three-fold to 37%:

 

This transformation in ratings has seen Britain move from being among the most gloomy nations to a mid-table position, alongside the United States.

Meanwhile, other European countries continue to struggle. In Italy and Spain, just 10% say their economies are in good shape, and in France that score stands at 9%. Although these scores are a little better than a year ago, they give little room for optimism. The picture is particularly grim in France, where just 7% expect to see an improvement over the next 6 months.

Germany and Sweden remain the strongest performers. Some 75% of Germans and 66% of Swedes say their economies are doing well.

Ireland was included for the first time in this month’s study, and 34% of Irish consumers are positive about the state of their economy. 22% expect to see an improvement in the local economy over the next 6 months.

Kieran O’Leary, Public Affairs Research Director in the Ipsos Dublin office says:

“After six years of turmoil in the Irish economy, confidence has been returning recently. This is a common theme across numerous consumer confidence surveys, including our own local measurement which is standing at its highest point in 10 years. With falling unemployment levels and, more recently, rising house prices,consumers are feeling more bullish about the prospects for the economy. However these increases are likely quite fragile and with a range of new tax measures hitting the economy during2014, consumer confidence could yet fall back again.”

Technical note

  • The survey instrument Global @dvisor is conducted monthly in 24 countries via the Ipsos Online Panel system. A 25th country, Egypt, was conducted via CATI (telephone) methodology.
  • For the results of the survey herein, an total sample of 19,605 adults age 18-64 in the US and Canada, and age 16-64 in all other countries, was interviewed between April 1st to April 15th 2014. Approximately 1000+ individuals were surveyed in Australia, Brazil, Canada, China, France, Germany, Great Britain, India, Italy, Japan, Spain, and the United States of America. Approximately 500+ individuals were surveyed in Argentina, Belgium, Hungary, Indonesia, Mexico, Poland, Russia, Saudi Arabia, South Africa, South Korea, Sweden and Turkey.
  • The results reported include n=560 in Egypt, a 25th country included in the Global Economic Pulse, conducted April 20th-27th.. The sample in Egypt was conducted via CATI (telephone) methodology and has a margin of error of +/- 4.1% points, 19 times out of 20.
  • In addition to above mentioned sample, the results in this report include n=509 fielded in the Republic of Ireland. The sample in Ireland was conducted via online methodology and has a margin of error of +/- 4.3% points, 19 times out of 20.
  • In countries where internet penetration is approximately 60% or higher the data output is comparable the general population. Of the 24 countries surveyed online, 15 yield results that are balanced to reflect the general population: Argentina, Australia, Belgium, Canada, France, Germany, Hungary, Italy, Japan, Poland, South Korea, Spain, Sweden, United Kingdom and United States. The nine remaining countries surveyed –Brazil (45.6% Internet penetration among the citizenry), China (41%), India (11.4%), Indonesia (22.1%), Mexico (36.5%), Russia (47.7%), Saudi Arabia (49%), South Africa (17.4%) and Turkey (45.7%)—have lower levels of connectivity therefore are not reflective of the general population; however, the online sample in these countries are particularly valuable in their own right as they are more urban/educated/income than their fellow citizens and are often referred to as “Upper Deck Consumer Citizens”.
  • The precision of Ipsos online polls are calculated using a credibility interval with a poll of 1,000 accurate to +/- 3.5 percentage points and of 500 accurate to +/- 5.0 percentage points. For more information on the Ipsos use of credibility intervals, please visit the Ipsos website.

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