Worcester's Weblog - Trust Is What This Election Is About

MORI chairman Sir Robert Worcester analyses the latest opinion poll data.

MORI chairman Sir Robert Worcester analyses the latest opinion poll data.

The bad news for Tony Blair before the election was called (January data) was that only 32% of the public said they trusted him to tell the truth. The good news was that only 28% said they trusted Michael Howard.

But worse news for Tony was that 50% said they trusted Gordon.

Trustworthiness Of Politicians

Q14 And in general would you describe each of the following politicians as trustworthy or not?

Base: 1,020 British adults 18+, 20-24 January 2005

160 Trustworthy Not trustworthy Don't know
160
Tony Blair 32%
57%
12%
160
Michael Howard 28%
47%
26%
160
Charles Kennedy 47%
29%
24%
160
Gordon Brown 50%
31%
19%

More good news for Tony was that Labour led the Tories; bad news was that if Gordon were Leader of the Labour Party, Labour would be three points further ahead.

In 1997 Tony Blair walked on water. He could have had the moon. The Euro was in his grasp. Banning fox hunting would have been a breeze. Abolish the hereditary peers? Whatever you say Tony. But he didn't have the courage of his convictions, focusing on winning that next election.

The politicians and the media wrung their hands after the 59% turnout at the last election. They all said they'd have to do better. Studies were commissioned. Reviews were done. All pointed in the same direction. Over control by the politicians in grey suits and dumbing down in the media. Not treating the electorate with the respect they believe they deserve.

So what do we have in this election? Even fewer men in control, Blair, Howard doing most of the talking, Brown and Prescott in attendance, but with little to say, and Howard virtually a one-man band, supported by the loyal Sandra. Charlie and Ming and a bit of Simon and Matthew.

Helicopters and barges, vox pops and talking heads, trying to be heard over the constant interruption of the interviewer/pundit. Even I get fed up with it, and I'm a self-acknowledged political junkie.

It isn't as if they didn't know. For more than 20 years I've been tracking the public's trust, or lack thereof, in among others, politicians and journalists. Just one person in five says they trust politicians generally and government ministers specifically to tell the truth, and just one in seven say they trust journalists.

Twice as many Labour supporters trust politicians (29%) than Tories (16%) or Lib Dems (15%), but all parties' supporters have the same low veracity score for journalists. A third (32%) of Labour supporters loyally say they trust Government ministers (only 12% of Tories, and 14% of Lib Dems), but if (big if) the Opposition was to win on May 5th, next year I suspect we'd find the situation reversed, but trust in politicians overall remaining the same.

They, the politicians and the media, aren't taking this problem seriously. An interesting programme last week on Channel 4, "How to win power", produced by Grace Chapman of Blakeway Productions, should be mandatory viewing, if only to listen to the politicians argue for conviction politics (Hattersley) and abolition of the marketing advisors (Major). The best comment was by Shirley Williams who said the focus groups, private polling and marketing advisors should be taken, but not inhaled (not her words, but the gist of what she said).

Opinion of Professions

Key To Professions

Bus -- Business Leaders
Civ -- Civil Servants
Cle -- Clergyman / Priests
Doc -- Doctors
Gov -- Government Ministers
Jou -- Journalists
Jud -- Judges
Ord -- The ordinary man / woman in the street
Pls -- Pollsters
Plc -- The Police
Plt -- Politicians generally
Prf -- Professors
Sci -- Scientists
TU -- Trade Union officials
TV -- Television news readers
Tea -- Teachers

Q Now I will read out a list of different types of people. For each, would you tell me whether you generally trust them to tell the truth or not?

160 Doc Tea TV Prf Jud Cle Sci Plc Ord Pls Civ TU Bus Jou Plt Gov
160 % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % %
Tell the truth
1983 82 79 63 160 77 85 160 61 57 160 25 18 25 19 18 16
1993 84 84 72 70 68 80 160 63 64 52 37 32 32 10 14 11
1997 86 83 74 70 72 71 63 61 56 55 36 27 29 15 15 12
1999 91 89 74 79 77 80 63 61 60 49 47 39 28 15 23 23
2000 87 85 73 76 77 78 63 60 52 46 47 38 28 15 20 21
2001 89 86 75 78 78 78 65 63 52 46 43 39 27 18 17 20
2002 91 85 71 77 77 80 64 59 54 47 45 37 25 13 19 20
2003 91 87 66 74 72 71 65 64 53 46 46 33 28 18 18 20
2004 92 89 70 80 75 75 69 63 55 49 51 39 30 20 22 23
2005 91 88 63 77 76 73 70 58 56 50 44 37 24 16 20 20
Not tell the truth
1983 14 14 25 160 18 11 160 32 27 160 63 71 65 73 75 74
1993 11 9 18 12 21 13 160 26 21 28 50 54 57 84 79 81
1997 10 11 14 12 19 20 22 30 28 28 50 56 60 76 78 80
1999 7 7 17 10 16 14 27 31 28 35 41 47 60 79 72 70
2000 9 10 18 11 15 16 25 33 34 35 40 47 60 78 74 72
2001 7 10 17 10 15 15 22 27 34 34 45 46 61 75 77 73
2002 6 10 19 11 15 14 23 31 31 35 42 49 62 79 73 72
2003 6 8 24 11 19 20 22 26 32 34 41 53 60 75 75 73
2004 5 7 20 9 16 17 19 28 29 30 37 44 58 72 71 70
2005 6 8 25 10 16 18 18 32 31 31 43 46 63 77 73 71
Don't know
1983 4 7 12 160 5 4 160 7 16 160 12 11 10 8 7 10
1993 5 7 10 18 11 7 160 11 15 20 13 86 11 6 7 8
1997 4 6 12 18 9 9 15 9 16 17 14 17 11 9 7 8
1999 2 4 9 11 4 6 10 7 11 16 12 13 12 6 5 7
2000 4 5 10 13 8 6 12 8 14 19 14 15 12 6 6 7
2001 3 5 8 12 7 7 13 10 14 19 12 15 13 8 5 7
2002 2 5 11 11 8 5 13 10 15 17 14 14 13 8 8 8
2003 2 5 10 15 9 9 13 9 15 20 13 13 12 7 7 7
2004 3 5 10 11 8 8 12 10 17 21 13 17 13 8 7 8
2005 4 4 12 13 8 9 12 10 14 19 13 16 13 8 7 9

Base: c.2,000 British adults aged 15+ each year.

Today's polls

Wow. NOP 22-24 April fieldwork, Labour up 3 to have Labour at 40%, along with Populus's tracker with them at 41%. NOP however has the Tories at 30%, while Populus has them at 33%. Neither's good news for Mr Howard. Nor Charlie for that matter, hanging at 21% in NOP and slipping in Populus. MORI's in the FT tomorrow with a massive 2,300 interview face-to-face poll done over the weekend and Monday. Watch this space.

Oh yes, forgot to mention the Sun's "Gnome poll". I've mentioned the usual doughnut polls, lollypop polls, popcorn polls and chocolate statues polls in the past, but gnome polls? A first in my memory of ten elections!

And silly media enquiry of the week: some guy named Rob Leigh from the New Statesman, who says they can't find ANYBODY who is going to vote Labour, and where do we find them? Outside the NS newsroom Rob.

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