Majority of Democrats, Americans overall want Biden to step aside

Washington, DC, July 21, 2024 -- Three in five Americans believe President Joe Biden should end his campaign for president and have the Democratic Party select a different candidate, according to a new ABC News/Ipsos poll. Americans on both sides of the political aisle are aligned on this, with majorities of Democrats, Republicans, and independents feeling it's better for Biden to step aside than continue his campaign. Though most Democrats acknowledge they would be satisfied with Biden as their party's nominee, a significantly higher number of Democrats would be satisfied with Vice President Kamala Harris as the party’s nominee. In the first ABC News/Ipsos poll since the assassination attempt on former President Donald Trump, this poll shows a positive bump in Trump's favorability rating among all Americans, and Trump holding a slight edge over Biden on his ability to unify the country. At the same time, however, nearly half of Americans blame Trump for the risk of political violence in this country, compared to roughly a quarter who blame Biden.

Detailed Findings:

1. While most Democrats say they would be satisfied with Biden as their party's presidential nominee, a majority believe it is time for him to exit the race. When it comes to being the Democratic party nominee for president in 2024, Harris fares better than other, lesser-known Democratic politicians.

• Overall, 34% of Americans say they would feel satisfied with Biden as the Democratic Party's presidential nominee, while 55% would feel dissatisfied. Though most Democrats, 58%, would feel satisfied, just 29% of political independents agree (60% would feel dissatisfied).
• While a majority Democrats are satisfied with Biden as the party’s nominee - and about seven in ten continue to feel favorable toward him - the majority believe he should end his campaign for president (60%) rather than continue (39%). Democrats and Republicans are in agreement here (60% vs. 55% end his campaign, respectively), and even more independents agree (66%).
• Three in four Democrats (76%) would be satisfied with Harris as the party's nominee - nearly 20 percentage points higher than their reported satisfaction with Biden. Overall, the public is a bit more split on satisfaction with Harris (39% satisfied, 46% dissatisfied). Her favorability ratings, while still more unfavorable than not, are also slightly better than Biden's:
  • Harris: 35% favorable, 46% unfavorable, 13% no opinion
  • Biden: 32% favorable, 55% unfavorable, 9% no opinion
  • A similar pattern emerges among those who are independent but lean Democrat when pushed; this group feels slightly warmer toward Harris than Biden.
• Republicans actually report higher levels of dissatisfaction with Harris as a potential candidate (9% satisfied, 80% dissatisfied) compared to a Biden candidacy (19% satisfied, 72% dissatisfied).
• Other potential Democratic politicians that are being discussed as possible replacements or vice presidential picks are still mostly unknown. The percentage of Americans who do not offer an opinion on satisfaction toward these individuals as a Democratic presidential nominee ranges from 40% for California Gov. Gavin Newsom to 70% for Kentucky Gov. Andy Beshear and 71% for Illinois Gov. JB Pritzker.

2. Roughly one week after the assassination attempt on Trump, his favorability ratings have improved. His vice presidential pick, Ohio Sen. JD Vance, is still unknown to many.

• Currently, 40% of all Americans feel favorable toward Trump, 51% feel unfavorable. This is a net 14-point improvement from our last ABC News/Ipsos poll in late May (now: -11 favorable-unfavorable; May: -25 favorable-unfavorable). Even as he is still viewed unfavorably by most, Trump's favorability rating is at the highest point recorded since ABC News/Ipsos began asking in August 2020.
• Attitudes toward Vance are mixed overall, with more than four in ten offering no opinion or saying they are unsure: 25% favorable, 31% unfavorable, 22% no opinion, and 21% don't know. Though a majority of Republicans feel favorable toward him (56%), more than one in three (37%) cannot offer a rating either way.
• Americans are evenly split on whether Trump's pick of Vance as his running mate was an excellent or good choice (35%), or a not so good or poor one (32%). Another 34% are unsure or do not offer an opinion.

3. Though Trump's personal ratings have seen a positive bump, a plurality of Americans blame him more than Biden for the risk of political violence in the U.S. The public is more split on who will do a better job uniting the country, with Trump holding just a slight edge over Biden.

• Overall, 46% blame Trump more for the risk of politically motivated violence in this country, compared to 27% who blame Biden more. One in seven (14%) blame both men equally, or do not blame either one (13%). Majorities of Americans age 65 and over (55%), college-educated Americans (58%), and Black Americans (60%) all say Trump is more to blame.
• The same is true for so-called "double haters" - those who feel unfavorable toward both Biden and Trump. Sixty-two percent blame Trump more for politically motivated violence, compared to 3% who blame Biden more, and 29% who blame both equally.
• However, 38% trust Trump to do a better job uniting the country, compared to 31% who say the same for Biden. Yet another three in ten (29%) do not trust either. Among these "double haters," 77% do not trust either man to unite the country. For those who do pick one candidate over the other, Biden holds an edge with this group, 17% vs. 6% who believe Trump will do a better job.

About the Study

This ABC News/Ipsos poll was conducted July 19 to 20, 2024, by Ipsos using the probability-based KnowledgePanel^®. This poll is based on a nationally representative probability sample of 1,141 adults age 18 or older with oversamples among Black and Hispanic respondents. One respondent was removed from the final data for refusing all of the survey items.

The survey was conducted using KnowledgePanel, the largest and most well-established online probability-based panel that is representative of the adult US population. Our recruitment process employs a scientifically developed addressed-based sampling methodology using the latest Delivery Sequence File of the USPS – a database with full coverage of all delivery points in the US. Households invited to join the panel are randomly selected from all available households in the U.S. Persons in the sampled households are invited to join and participate in the panel. Those selected who do not already have internet access are provided a tablet and internet connection at no cost to the panel member. Those who join the panel and who are selected to participate in a survey are sent a unique password-protected log-in used to complete surveys online. As a result of our recruitment and sampling methodologies, samples from KnowledgePanel cover all households regardless of their phone or internet status and findings can be reported with a margin of sampling error and projected to the general population. KnowledgePanel members receive a per survey incentive, usually the equivalent of $1 (though for some it is $2) in points, that can be redeemed for cash or prizes. A prenotification email for this study was sent prior to field. Panelists receive a unique login to the survey and are only able to complete it one time.No reminder emails were sent for this study.

The margin of sampling error is plus or minus 3.1 percentage points at the 95% confidence level, for results based on the entire sample of adults. The margin of sampling error takes into account the design effect, which was 1.16. The margin of sampling error is higher and varies for results based on sub-samples. Sampling error is only one potential source of error. There may be other unmeasured non-sampling error in this or any poll. In our reporting of the findings, percentage points are rounded off to the nearest whole number. As a result, percentages in a given table column may total slightly higher or lower than 100%. In questions that permit multiple responses, columns may total substantially more than 100%, depending on the number of different responses offered by each respondent.

The study was conducted in both English and Spanish. The data were weighted to adjust for gender by age, race/ethnicity, education, Census region, metropolitan status, household income, party identification, race/ethnicity by gender, race/ethnicity by age, and race/ethnicity by education. The demographic benchmarks came from 2023 Current Population Survey (CPS) from the US Census Bureau. Party ID benchmarks are from the most recent ABC News/Ipsos poll. The weighting categories were as follows:

• Gender (Male, Female) by Age (18–29, 30–44, 45–59, and 60+)
• Race/Hispanic Ethnicity (White Non-Hispanic, Black Non-Hispanic, Other or 2+ Races Non-Hispanic, Hispanic)
• Education (High School graduate or less, Some College, Bachelor and beyond)
• Census Region (Northeast, Midwest, South, West)
• Metropolitan status (Metro, non-Metro)
• Household Income (Under $25,000, $25,000-$49,999, $50,000-$74,999, $75,000-$99,999, $100,000-$149,999, $150,000+)
• Party ID (Republican/lean Republican, Independent/Something else, Lean Democrat/Democrat)
• Race/ethnicity (White/Other Non-Hispanic, Black Non-Hispanic, Hispanic) by Gender (Male, Female)
• Race/ethnicity (White/Other Non-Hispanic, Black Non-Hispanic, Hispanic) by Age (18-44, 45+)
• Race/ethnicity (White/Other Non-Hispanic, Black Non-Hispanic, Hispanic) by Education (Some college or less, Bachelor and beyond)

For more information on this news release, please contact:

Chris Jackson
Senior Vice President, US
Public Affairs
+1 202 420-2025
[email protected]

Mallory Newall
Vice President, US
Public Affairs
+1 202 374-2613
[email protected]

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