Majority of Americans say Harris won the debate
New ABC News/Ipsos polling finds Harris has slight lead on the ballot, even as Trump is seen as better on the issues most important to Americans for the election
Washington, DC, September 15, 2024—The latest ABC News/Ipsos poll shows that Vice President Kamala Harris has a slight lead over former President Donald Trump, statistically unchanged compared to before the debate. Most Americans think Harris won the debate, with majorities reporting that they watched or listened to some of the debate and followed news coverage after the debate. Due to the debate, twice as many Americans now report viewing Harris rather than Trump favorably. On the issues, Trump is seen as better for issues like the economy and inflation, while Harris is seen as better on issues like healthcare, abortion, and protecting democracy.
Detailed findings:
1. Most Americans think Harris won the debate.
- About two in three Americans (58%) feel Harris won the debate, compared to 36% who say Trump won.
- Most Americans (64%) and registered voters (72%) report watching or listening to some of the debate. Majorities also report reading, watching, or listening to coverage of the news following the debate (61% among Americans overall vs. 68% of registered voters).
- Americans are split on how the debate impacted Harris’ favorability, with 38% saying the debate made no difference, 37% saying they view Harris more favorably, and 23% saying they view her less favorably.
- Favorability of Trump following the debate is more set; half of Americans say the debate made no difference in how they view him, while 31% say they view Trump less favorably due to the debate and 17% saying they see him more favorably.
- However, more than twice as many Americans say the debate makes them think more favorably of Harris than Trump (37% view Harris more favorably vs. 17% for Trump).
- Even with these reported changes from the debate, the overall favorable impression of each candidate is statistically unchanged from ABC News/Ipsos polling conducted in August before the debate.
2. Americans prefer Trump on the economy and inflation – the two most important issues to Americans.
- Nine in ten Americans say the economy (91%) is one of the single most or a very important issue in their choice of which candidate to support in the election, the single most important issue to Americans since April 2024.
- Strong majorities of Americans also say inflation (87%), protecting American democracy (79%), and health care (77%) are important issues in their choice for president, which all of have stayed relatively stable since April.
- Trump is seen as better when it comes to the economy and inflation, the two most important issues for Americans. Forty-six percent of respondents trust Trump more to handle the economy, compared to 39% who say the same of Harris. Similarly, 45% trust Trump more on inflation, compared to 38% who trust Harris. Trump is also seen as better on immigration (47% Trump vs. 37% Harris). Following the debate, these ratings have not shifted significantly.
- On the other hand, Harris is seen as better on abortion (48% Harris vs. 34% Trump), health care (45% vs. 36%), protecting American democracy (45% vs. 38%), and appointments to the U.S. Supreme Court (43% vs. 38%).
3. Harris has a slight lead over Trump on the ballot.
- Among registered voters who say they will vote, 51% support Harris and 47% support Trump. Compared to ABC News/Ipsos polling conducted before the debate, Harris’ slight lead is statistically unchanged.
- Most Harris (62%) and Trump supporters (60%) say they strongly support their candidate.
- However, more Trump supporters say they support him with reservations than Harris’ supporters (34% support Trump with reservations vs. 23% who support Harris with reservations).
- A small share of each candidates’ supporters say they support them because they mainly dislike other candidates (16% for Harris vs. 10% for Trump).
About the Study
This ABC News/Ipsos poll was conducted September 11 to 13, 2024, by Ipsos using the probability-based KnowledgePanel®. Invitations were sent to 6,277 panelists, resulting in 3,276 completed interviews. In quality control, 57 respondents were removed for skipping half or more of the questions or completing the survey in the fastest 1 percent times. For more precise analysis, the survey includes oversamples of n=133 Black people, n=146 Hispanic people and n=160 people age 18-29, with these groups scaled to their correct proportion of the population in weighting.
The survey was conducted using KnowledgePanel, the most well-established online probability-based panel that is representative of the adult US population. Our recruitment process employs a scientifically developed addressed-based sampling methodology using the latest Delivery Sequence File of the USPS – a database with full coverage of all delivery points in the US. Households invited to join the panel are randomly selected from all available households in the U.S. Persons in the sampled households are invited to join and participate in the panel. Those selected who do not already have internet access are provided a tablet and internet connection at no cost to the panel member. Those who join the panel and who are selected to participate in a survey are sent a unique password-protected log-in used to complete surveys online. As a result of our recruitment and sampling methodologies, samples from KnowledgePanel cover all households regardless of their phone or internet status and findings can be reported with a margin of sampling error and projected to the general population. KnowledgePanel members receive a per survey incentive, usually the equivalent of $1 (though for some it is $2) in points, that can be redeemed for cash or prizes. A prenotification email was sent prior to field. Panelists receive a unique login to the survey and are only able to complete it one time. No email reminders were sent.
The study was conducted in both English and Spanish. The data were weighted to adjust for gender by age, race/ethnicity, education, Census region by metropolitan status, household income, language dominance, 2020 presidential vote choice, and party identification. The demographic benchmarks came from 2023 March Supplement of the Current Population Survey (CPS) from the US Census Bureau. Language dominance benchmarks are from the 2022 American Community Survey (ACS). The 2020 presidential vote choice benchmarks came from the federal elections 2020 election results for the U.S. President while the Party Identification came from the 2024 National Public Opinion Reference Survey (NPORS). The weighting categories were as follows:
- Gender (Male, Female) by Age (18–29, 30–44, 45–59, and 60+)
- Race/Hispanic Ethnicity (White Non-Hispanic, Black Non-Hispanic, Other or 2+ Races Non-Hispanic, Hispanic)
- Education (No high school diploma or GED, High school graduate (high school diploma or the equivalent GED), Some college or Associate’s degree, Bachelor’s degree, Master’s degree or above)
- Census Region (Northeast, Midwest, South, West) by Metropolitan status (Metro, non-Metro)
- Household Income (Under $25,000, $25,000-$49,999, $50,000-$74,999, $75,000-$99,999, $100,000-$149,999, $150,000+)
- Language Dominance (English dominant, Bilingual, Spanish dominant, non-Hispanic)
- 2020 Presidential Vote Choice (Biden, Trump, Another candidate, Not asked)
- Party Identification (Republican, Lean Republican, Independent/Not lean, Lean Democrat, Democrat).
The margin of sampling error is plus or minus 1.8 percentage points at the 95% confidence level, for results based on the entire sample of adults. The margin of sampling error takes into account the design effect, which was 1.14. The margin of sampling error is higher and varies for results based on sub-samples. Sampling error is only one potential source of error. There may be other unmeasured non-sampling error in this or any poll. In our reporting of the findings, percentage points are rounded off to the nearest whole number. As a result, percentages in a given table column may total slightly higher or lower than 100%. In questions that permit multiple responses, columns may total substantially more than 100%, depending on the number of different responses offered by each respondent.
For more information on this news release, please contact:
Chris Jackson
Senior Vice President, US
Public Affairs
+1 202 420-2025
[email protected]
Mallory Newall
Vice President, US
Public Affairs
+1 202 374-2613
[email protected]
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