Cliff’s Take: America Settles in For the Long Haul

Hope everyone is staying healthy and safe.

For many of us, we are going into our sixth week of isolation. There is much talk among public authorities of easing up restrictions. Trump’s presser yesterday detailed a multi-stage plan for opening things up. However, no real details or timelines were articulated. Politicians and politicos, especially Republicans, are beginning to clamor about the negative effect of social distancing on the economy. Even so, health(care) remains the number one concern among Americans, independent of their political stripes and demographic insignias. 

I detail below the polling data that I think most important this week.

1. It’s All About Health and Jobs, Stupid?! COVID-19 has significantly altered America’s policy priorities. Look at the data below—the trends are clear. We went from the troika of issues pre-COVID-19—healthcare, immigration, and jobs/economy to an agenda driven exclusively by healthcare and jobs. We have not seen such a wholesale shift in priorities since 9/11, when the focus immediately moved from domestic issues to national security. The huge challenge for political decision-makers right now is that the health agenda collides with the economic agenda. A definite political conundrum: the need to keep in lockdown to stay healthy, while staying in lockdown shuts down the economy! 

    

2. But Health Trumps Jobs Right Now. When “push comes to shove,” a super-majority of Americans support “shelter in place” orders for health reasons over opening things up to get the economy going. And this support varies little across partisan and demographic lines. Politicians should heed this insight when thinking of any early easing of restrictions. 

    

3. Americans Not Antsy, But In It For The Long Haul. The pandemic has now made its way into our day-to-day lives, significantly altering our behaviors and expectations. To wit, our most recent ABC-Ipsos poll shows that a vast majority (69%) of Americans now expect our COVID-19 world to last much longer—at least until July 1, if not significantly longer.  Again, Americans seem to be very practical—will their political leaders be as well? 

    

4. The Physical World Is A Risky Place In COVID-19. Americans see the physical world as especially risky right now. The key question, for me, is after COVID-19 passes into memory, will this perception of threat remain? If it does, it may alter our world forever. 

    

5. The 2020 Presidential Election Defined By “Most Robust Recovery Plan.” Americans want a president with a robust COVID-19 recovery plan; this is their number-one concern. The candidate that owns this issue, takes the White House. And Trump and Biden are tied right now!

    

Finally, take a look at my ARF virtual townhall or most recent interview with Tim Farley for a good synthesis of my views on the present state of affairs. Again, stay safe and healthy.