America the Uncertain: March Highlights

America the Uncertain

The America the Uncertain webinar series will present in-depth analysis of the latest public opinion data on current trends and recent events influencing the political landscape. Read on below for highlights and key insights from this month’s webinar.

What you need to know

The COVID-19 vaccine is gaining ground with the public. Back in the middle of September, only 13% of people said they would get a COVID-19 vaccine as soon as it became available to them. Now, 54% of Americans either would get the vaccine as soon as they can or already received it.

• Yet, vaccine skepticism among Republicans has not budged, with vaccine hesitancy driven by this demographic.

Many Americans believe President Biden is handling the pandemic well. Right now, 61% of Americans approve of Biden’s handling of the coronavirus.

• Biden’s job performance with the pandemic is buoying his overall approval rating. But, Biden’s approval on some other traditionally partisan issues—like the economy or immigration—splits along party lines.

Americans are growing hopeful about the future. Now, 40% believe that they will be able to return to something like a pre-COVID life within the next six months, up from 26% at the end of January.

• Between advancements in the vaccine rollout and the optimistic signals coming from the Biden administration, more people see an end to the pandemic in the short-to-mid term future.

While many parts of a post-pandemic world remain murky, one thing is clear: partisanship will remain a constant, clear cleavage in American society. Whether the United States will emerge from the pandemic stronger and more united than before splits Americans right down the middle.

• Few Republicans and independents agree with this prospect, while most Democrats agree—underlining how partisanship colors people’s image of a post-pandemic world.

Deep Dive

America’s COVID-19 outbreak

While the country is still averaging a staggering number of cases per day—a caseload that would’ve seemed disastrous over the summer—positive COVID-19 infections have come down from a post-holiday high. As a result, nearly all Americans—about four in five people— know someone who has tested positive for COVID-19, and over one in three know someone who has died over the past year.

As more people became familiar with the vaccines and the pandemic wore on, Americans became more open to getting inoculated sooner rather than later.  Back in the middle of September, only 13% of people said they would get a COVID-19 vaccine as soon as it became available to them. Now, 54% of Americans either would get the vaccine as soon as they can or already received it, according to the Axios/Ipsos Coronavirus Index.

Yet, while overall trust is growing in the vaccine, a sizeable minority still do not trust the COVID-19 vaccine. Roughly one in five to one in four people throughout the past six months do not want to get the vaccine at all.

But, who is driving this vaccine hesitancy has changed. When Ipsos first began tracking this question with Axios, Black Americans made up the bulk of people who were skeptical of the vaccine. Now, Republicans drive vaccine hesitancy, with one in three not wanting the vaccine at all. The number of Republicans who refuse to take a vaccine is relatively fixed and has remained consistent since the fall.

The Biden administration

President Biden, elected on a unity and pandemic platform, has performed favorably on the latter. Overall, 61% of Americans approve of Biden’s handling of the coronavirus, an approval number that somewhat cuts across the deep political divide.

But, Biden’s approval numbers for other issues fall along more predictable partisan lines, especially for topics with a partisan tilt, like immigration and the economy, reflecting the different political realities Americans move through. Despite this, Biden’s performance on the pandemic certainly is buoying his above-water approval numbers, something that has remained relatively consistent since he was declared the winner of the election back in November.

Reopening the country?

Between the rollout of the vaccine and Biden’s favorable handling of the pandemic, many Americans are hopeful that they will be able to return to pre-COVID life soon, a trend that developed over the past month. Now, 40% believe that they will be able to return to something like a pre-COVID life within the next six months, up from 26% at the end of January. These changing tides are due to two trends: the falling number of people who believe that it will take more than a year for pre-COVID life to make a comeback (18% for March 5-8 vs. 30% for Jan 29-Feb 1), and the rising number of people who believe that within the next six months pre-COVID life will return (21% for March 5-8 vs. 15% for Jan 29-Feb 1).

Continued Age of Uncertainty

While Americans are increasingly optimistic about getting back to pre-COVID life, the partisan fault lines that plagued the country before and during the pandemic will linger after COVID subsides as well. Only 49% of Americans believe that beating the pandemic will help Americans come out of the pandemic stronger and more united, with only a minority of independents (38%) and Republicans (36%) agreeing with this. On the other hand, most Democrats—69%— believe that the country will emerge from the pandemic stronger and more united than ever. Beating back a novel, deadly virus that completely upended everyday life and developing a life-saving vaccine in record time all are not enough to convince Americans that people will unite after the pandemic is over.