Apathy vs. frenzy in the general election is the difference between Biden facing Haley instead of Trump. Each candidate's brand can explain why

Washington DC,  March 04, 2024— New Ipsos research and analysis finds that when President Joe Biden faces off against former President Donald Trump, in this evaluation of both of their brands, people are more motivated to vote and vote for Biden than if Biden faces off against former UN Ambassador Nikki Haley. Notably, if Biden were to go against Haley, fewer Democrats would choose to support Biden; instead, some shift their support to Haley, others are unsure of what they would do, and some say they will not vote. At the same time, many Republicans would choose not to vote if Haley is representing the Republican party. Taken together, the composition of the electorate changes dramatically if Biden faces off against Trump, and if Biden faces off against Haley in general election scenarios, and that’s in part because the emotional stakes of the election downshift when Haley replaces Trump.

Leveraging the Ipsos Brand Success framework, Ipsos assessed the presidential candidates as if they were commercial brands; specifically, measuring these “candidate brands” on how successfully they:

• shape voter expectations,
• in a relevant context, and
• with empathy.

Do expectations change in a Biden-Trump match up vs. a Biden-Haley scenario?  Yes, completely!

What is the current context surrounding the electorate: How do they feel about politicians, the media and the country? Short answer: Miserably.

As brands, are these candidates perceived as acting with empathy towards the electorate? More to come on this, but the answer may surprise you.

Detailed findings:

1. In the Trump vs. Biden scenario, Brand Biden’s strength and success hinges on many Americans’ disdain for Brand Trump. Though, Trump’s brand does benefit from a devoted base that views him positively.
   • The Biden brand isn’t strong on its own. People’s expectations of him are low, and he is viewed by many as being “old” and “corrupt”.
   • The public largely expects Trump to act in “reckless” or “irresponsible” ways, but his brand does benefit from a devoted base of support, playing to his unique strength in the empathy component of the Ipsos Brand Success framework. Trump’s brand is strong among his supporters, where he is seen as “defending my values,” “understanding who our true enemies are,” being “bold”, and “giving voice to my concerns.”
   • Overall, what differentiates Trump from both Haley and Biden is how central and motivating emotions are to his brand—both positive and negative ones. Trump’s brand is far more polarizing to people than either Biden or Haley for this reason.
   • Relatedly, people feel Biden’s brand delivers better on “an upholding of democracy.”
   • However, the Trump vs. Biden scenario motivates people to turnout, more so than the Biden vs. Haley test.
   • In part, this is because of the deep seeded feelings of pessimism and existential stakes surrounding the candidates. About half of respondents (47%) believe that Trumps’ win will be bad for people like them, while 45% say the same about a Biden win.
   • Feelings of closeness to Brand Trump and Biden have both diminished substantially relative to four years ago, though Trump still holds more goodwill than Biden.
   • At the same time, support is entrenched for both. Brand Biden and Brand Trump can’t convince their competitor’s supporters to switch sides.
2. In the Haley vs. Biden match-up, the electorate changes substantially and the high-stakes of the election subside.
   • Haley’s brand poses a bigger threat to Biden than Trump. Unlike in the Biden vs. Trump match-up, Haley is able to persuade some Biden supporters to support her. However, this comes at the expense of Republicans reporting being less likely to turnout.
   • That’s to say that the potential electorate looks and feels very different in a Haley vs. Biden scenario. If Haley runs instead of Trump, higher income and more educated people are part of the electorate.
   • Brand Haley is viewed positively by the public—being seen as “healthy” and “intelligent”—but there is a lack of passion around her brand too.
   • Likewise, Haley brings down the emotionality of the election, holding the best brand expectations among Americans. Nearly two in three Americans say she will not be bad for them if elected.
   • Brand Haley is somewhat more empathetic than Brand Biden in a match-up, pointing to Biden’s individual brand weakness, and indicating that in this scenario the agenda and drivers of the election would be very different than if Biden faces off against Trump.
3. Politicians overall are not developing their brands successfully, sowing a sense of pessimism among the public.
   • When asked which politicians were their favorite from a list of eight-high profile politicians, roughly one in four say “none.”
   • At the same time, two-thirds of respondents felt political parties and politicians are out of touch with their needs and don’t care about people like them.
   • Only one in three Americans believe their life will be better in five years from now than today.
   • At the same time, most Americans feel like the media is more interesting in making money than telling the truth.

About the Study

This Ipsos poll was conducted February 2-7, 2024, by Ipsos using the probability-based KnowledgePanel®. This poll is based on a nationally representative probability sample of 1,076 general population U.S. adults aged 18 or older.

The margin of sampling error for this study is plus or minus 3.4 percentage points at the 95% confidence level, for results based on the entire sample of adults. The margin of sampling error takes into account the design effect, which was 1.26. The margin of sampling error is higher and varies for results based on other sub-samples. In our reporting of the findings, percentage points are rounded off to the nearest whole number. As a result, percentages in a given table column may total slightly higher or lower than 100%. In questions that permit multiple responses, columns may total substantially more than 100%, depending on the number of different responses offered by each respondent.

The survey was conducted using KnowledgePanel®, the largest and most well-established online probability-based panel that is representative of the adult U.S. population. Our recruitment process employs a scientifically developed addressed-based sampling methodology using the latest Delivery Sequence File of the USPS – a database with full coverage of all delivery points in the US. Households invited to join the panel are randomly selected from all available households in the U.S. Persons in the sampled households are invited to join and participate in the panel. Those selected who do not already have internet access are provided a tablet and internet connection at no cost to the panel member. Those who join the panel and who are selected to participate in a survey are sent a unique password-protected log-in used to complete surveys online. As a result of our recruitment and sampling methodologies, samples from KnowledgePanel® cover all households regardless of their phone or internet status and findings can be reported with a margin of sampling error and projected to the general population.

The data were weighted to adjust for gender by age, race/ethnicity, education, Census region by metropolitan status, household income and 2020 vote choice. The demographic benchmarks came from the 2023 March supplement of the U.S. Census Bureau’s Current Population Survey (CPS). The 2020 Vote Choice came from Federal Elections 2020 Election Results for the U.S. President.

• Gender (Male, Female) by Age (18-29, 30-44, 45-59, 60+)
• Race-Ethnicity (White/Non-Hispanic, Black/Non-Hispanic, Other/Non-Hispanic and 2+
• Races/Non-Hispanic, Hispanic)
• Census Region (Northeast, Midwest, South, West) by Metropolitan Status (Metro,
• Non-Metro)
• Education (Less than High School, High School graduate or equivalent, Some College,
• Bachelor or higher)
• Household Income (under $25K, $25K-$49,999, $50K-$74,999, $75K-$99,999, $100K-
• $149,999, $150K and over)
• Vote Choice 2020 (Biden, Trump, Other)

About Ipsos

Ipsos is one of the largest market research and polling companies globally, operating in 90 markets and employing over 18,000 people. Our passionately curious research professionals, analysts and scientists have built unique multi-specialist capabilities that provide true understanding and powerful insights into the actions, opinions and motivations of citizens, consumers, patients, customers or employees. Our 75 solutions are based on primary data from our surveys, social media monitoring, and qualitative or observational techniques.

Ipsos is listed on Eurolist – NYSE – Euronext. The company is part of the SBF 120 and the Mid-60 index and is eligible for the Deferred Settlement Service (SRD).

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