AP/Ipsos Poll: Increased Uncertainty About Stable Future For Iraq

Washington, DC - One month after President Bush's reelection, the American public is as divided as ever over Bush's performance and the direction of the country as a whole. The situation in Iraq continues to generate concern. As Iraq's January elections near, Americans are more doubtful that a stable and democratic government can be established.

Greater Skepticism toward Future Stability in Iraq Compared to polls taken in April of this year, Americans now appear less convinced that a stable and democratic government will be established in Iraq. In mid-April, a majority thought such a government would be established. Now only 47% say it is likely - and most think it is "somewhat" rather than "very likely." More now (51%) than in mid-April (44%) say it is unlikely a stable, democratic government will be set up in Iraq. One in five (19%) say it is "not at all likely."

Confidence in Iraq's future has particularly declined among groups including seniors (42% likely, 56% in mid-April), college graduates (41%, from 53%), Southerners (48%, from 60%) and residents of the Great Plains-Mountain region (45%, from 58%), Democrats (28%, from 40%) and Independents (36%, from 52%). Republicans, however, continue to say it's likely a stable government will be put in place (72%; 74% in April).

Voters Split on Bush's Handling of Iraq Uncertainty about the course of events in Iraq is also reflected in the public's divided views of how President Bush has handled the situation. Registered voters are split evenly between those who approve and disapprove of Bush's handling of Iraq, although the share who "strongly disapprove" (35%) outnumbers those who "strongly approve" (27%).

Bush's Iraq policy receives particular praise from people in their thirties (58%), residents of the South (54%; 64% Oil Patch), and Republican voters (87%). Criticism is stronger among minorities (70% disapprove), college-educated women (61%), Democrats (84%) and Independents (66%).

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Bush fares slightly better on his handling of broader international issues. A slim majority (53%) approve of Bush's handling of foreign policy and the war on terrorism, consistent with findings from last month and most of this year.

Views on Bush's Performance in Office Remain Divided Half (51%) of registered voters approve of Bush's overall performance in office, and nearly as many (47%) disapprove. There has been a very slight waning in the intensity of opinions, but the more striking aspect is how little views have changed over the past few eventful months.

Likewise, voters continue to be evenly divided on Bush's handling of the economy. Views of his handling of other domestic issues have improved marginally over recent weeks but have yet to move into positive territory.

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Continued Belief Country is on "Wrong Track" By a five-to-four margin, Americans say the country is headed off "on the wrong track," a view that has held fairly steady over the past year. As in past months, views remain most sharply divided along party lines, with 84% of Republicans saying the country is heading in the right direction, and 82% of Democrats and 68% of Independents saying things are off on the wrong track.

The Associated Press Poll is conducted by Ipsos-Public Affairs. Between December 6-8, 2004, the AP-Ipsos poll interviewed a representative sample of 1,000 adults nationwide, including 845 registered voters. The margin of error is +/- 3.1 for all adults and +/- 3.4 for registered voters. Margin of error for subgroups may be higher.

To view the complete filled-in questionnaire for this survey, please download the Topline Results PDF at the top of this page.

For more information on this press release, please contact: Janice Bell Director, Ipsos Public Affairs Washington, D.C. 202.463.7300

About Ipsos Public Affairs Ipsos Public Affairs, headquartered in Washington D.C., is a non-partisan, objective, survey-based research company made up of campaign and political polling veterans as well as seasoned research professionals. The company conducts strategic research initiatives for a diverse number of American and international organizations, based not only on public opinion research but often elite stakeholder, corporate, and media opinion research. It has offices in New York City, Chicago, San Francisco, and Washington, with affiliates around the world. Ipsos Public Affairs conducts national and international public opinion polling on behalf of The Associated Press, the world's oldest and largest news organization, and conducts the young voters poll for Newsweek.com. Ipsos Public Affairs is an Ipsos company, a leading global survey-based market research group.

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